Now that the 2016 Presidential election cycle has concluded, there has been considerable discussion about whether pollsters as a whole “missed the boat” on predicting the Presidential race. Did they ? To evaluate, there are two aspects of the 2016 Presidential polls that JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed: (1) how well the polls predicted the […]
Archive | Analysis
RSS feed for this sectionDemographic analysis of the 2016 flood, revisited
Back in October, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed voter registration statistics in all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes to determine whether the August 2016 flood that hit south Louisiana especially hard (more so than the 1983 flood) was a “Katrina event” (i.e., the scope of the devastation sparked a massive resettlement into other parts of the […]
Decision 2016: East Baton Rouge…or “East Baton Bleu” Parish?
The late Clyde Vidrine once noted as long ago as 1971 that “the vote in Baton Rouge didn’t often match up with the rest of Louisiana.” Back when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, that meant that East Baton Rouge Parish was a relatively isolated Republican island surrounded by solidly Democratic parishes. As Louisiana has […]
Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s “No Tossups Allowed” Presidential/Senate scorecard
In 49 states, election season will be over tomorrow (Louisiana has several races which will go into a December 10 runoff). Now that JMC has incorporated all polling up to this afternoon, what does he think will happen with the Presidency and/or Senate ? PRESIDENT: Clinton 275, Trump 263 […]
Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s “Swing State Tracker”
Given that there has been substantial movement in the polls this past week, what is REALLY happening with the Presidential race right now? Since this racet is not so much a national contest as it is 50 simultaneous state contests, where the race is or is heading in marginal states is critical for a proper analysis […]
Decision 2016 – In person early voting has concluded in Louisiana
In person early voting concluded last night for the 2016 Presidential election in Louisiana, although mail in absentee ballots are still being accepted for several more days. What has early voting told us about voter turnout/which voters are turning out ? Record early voting turnout As of last night, 515,181 early voted, which is a new record that […]
Decision 2016 – (Halftime Report for) Early Voting in Louisiana
In person early voting has now been underway for three days for the 2016 Presidential election in Louisiana and will continue until next Tuesday, November 1 (after which, mail in absentee ballots will be accepted for another week). What have three days of early voting told us with regards to voter turnout? Record early voting turnout […]
Decision 2016 – (First Day of) Early Voting in Louisiana
In person early voting is now underway for the 2016 Presidential election in Louisiana and will continue until next Tuesday, November 1 (after which, mail in absentee ballots will be accepted for another week). What did yesterday’s early vote tell us ? Record early voting turnout Louisianians are slowly but surely getting used to the […]
Decision 2016: Has Donald Trump “spiked” Democratic voter registration? (October 22 update)
Donald Trump has run an unconventional campaign. And part of that departure from convention has been the use of controversial rhetoric that popularly has been thought to energize unregistered Democratic voters, thus making it more difficult for him to carry critical swing states and get elected. Or has he ? To best evaluate this assumption, […]
Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s Louisiana Presidential/US Senate Poll
JMC Analytics and Polling was recently commissioned by the Fleming campaign to poll Louisiana both for the Presidential and the (24 candidate) U.S. Senate race. Among its findings: 1.For the U.S. Senate race, five candidates once had a path to the runoff – now, four do; 2.On the Democratic side, Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell essentially has […]