In 49 states, election season will be over tomorrow (Louisiana has several races which will go into a December 10 runoff). Now that JMC has incorporated all polling up to this afternoon, what does he think will happen with the Presidency and/or Senate ?
PRESIDENT: Clinton 275, Trump 263
Polling over the weekend/yesterday didn’t show appreciable movement for Trump in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or Wisconsin. And since Colorado is an all mail ballot state, Democrats have typically done well with this type of balloting, so JMC is reluctant (even though polls have tightened, none show Trump in the lead) to flip Colorado to Trump.
All in all, JMC predicts that Trump holds all the Romney states while picking up Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio. That gets him close to, but not over, 270 electoral votes.
SENATE: 51 Republicans, 49 Democrats
Democrats hold onto all their seats (a strong Hispanic early vote, plus defection from Trump voters, enables them to hold onto Harry Reid’s seat), while picking off three Republican incumbents swept into office in the 2010 landslide in (currently) less favorable terrain: Mark Kirk of Illinois, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin.
There are several vulnerable Republicans seats the GOP will hold onto: Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.
And with these predictions, polls close tomorrow morning.