Historically, political party affiliation was a function of one’s income (i.e., the wealthier one was, the more likely that he/she was Republican). Even when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, the affluent voter populations in more urbanized areas of the state could be counted to vote Republican both at the top of the ticket and […]
Archive | 2016 Election
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2016: Did the pollsters get it right (or wrong)?
Now that the 2016 Presidential election cycle has concluded, there has been considerable discussion about whether pollsters as a whole “missed the boat” on predicting the Presidential race. Did they ? To evaluate, there are two aspects of the 2016 Presidential polls that JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed: (1) how well the polls predicted the […]
Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood, revisited
Back in October, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed voter registration statistics in all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes to determine whether the August 2016 flood that hit south Louisiana especially hard (more so than the 1983 flood) was a “Katrina event” (i.e., the scope of the devastation sparked a massive resettlement into other parts of the […]
Decision 2016: East Baton Rouge…or “East Baton Bleu” Parish?
The late Clyde Vidrine once noted as long ago as 1971 that “the vote in Baton Rouge didn’t often match up with the rest of Louisiana.” Back when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, that meant that East Baton Rouge Parish was a relatively isolated Republican island surrounded by solidly Democratic parishes. As Louisiana has […]
Decision 2016 – (First Day of) Runoff Early Voting in Louisiana
In person early voting started yesterday for the December 10 runoff and will continue until next Saturday, December 3. The runoff ballot contains the US Senate race, two Congressional races, the Mayor-President of East Baton Rouge Parish, and assorted local races/tax propositions. What did yesterday’s early vote tell us ? Dismal early voting turnout While early […]
Decision 2016 – Grading JMC Analytics and Polling on its “No Tossups Allowed” scorecard
On the day before the election, JMC Analytics and Polling issued a scorecard of its Presidential and Senate predictions (83 races in all). How did it do ? It got 76 of those 83 (or 91.6%) races right, was wrong in six races, while the jury is still out on one race – Michigan has […]
Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s “No Tossups Allowed” Presidential/Senate scorecard
In 49 states, election season will be over tomorrow (Louisiana has several races which will go into a December 10 runoff). Now that JMC has incorporated all polling up to this afternoon, what does he think will happen with the Presidency and/or Senate ? PRESIDENT: Clinton 275, Trump 263 […]
Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s “Swing State Tracker”
Given that there has been substantial movement in the polls this past week, what is REALLY happening with the Presidential race right now? Since this racet is not so much a national contest as it is 50 simultaneous state contests, where the race is or is heading in marginal states is critical for a proper analysis […]
Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s November 4 Presidential scorecard
Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state (1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 7 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) […]
Decision 2016 – In person early voting has concluded in Louisiana
In person early voting concluded last night for the 2016 Presidential election in Louisiana, although mail in absentee ballots are still being accepted for several more days. What has early voting told us about voter turnout/which voters are turning out ? Record early voting turnout As of last night, 515,181 early voted, which is a new record that […]