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Decision 2019: JMC’s Runoff Post-Mortem

As both the decade and the 2019 election cycle comes to a close, JMC would like to analyze the results through the prism of the December 2002 runoff that saw Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu re-elected, as there are similarities between that race and Governor John Bel Edwards’ successful re-election race (that comparison was also made […]

Decision 2019 – Conclusion of runoff in person early voting in Louisiana

In person early voting concluded last night (mail in absentees can still be accepted up to the day before Election Day), and it broke some records. What did seven days of runoff early voting tell us? Strong turnout As of last night, 489.649 Louisianians either early voted by person or by mail in ballot (451,171 […]

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Decision 2019 – “Halftime Report” for Runoff Early Voting in Louisiana

We have now passed the midway point for in person early voting for the November 16 runoff – four days’ worth of early voting are in the rear view mirror, with three more days (today/Thursday, Friday, and Saturday) to go. What has four days of early voting told us? (Close to) record early voting turnout […]

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Decision 2019 – Day 1 of runoff early voting (Louisiana Democrats channel Bill Clinton)

After one term in office as Governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton was defeated when he ran for re-election in 1980. Experts attributed his upset loss to “three Cs” – (1) car tags (Governor Clinton substantially increased the license plate fees in his first term), (2) Cubans (after Fidel Castro allowed over 100,000 Cubans to emigrate […]

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Decision 2019: Comparing John Bel Edwards’ (2019) and Mary Landrieu’s (2002) races

Picture this runoff scenario: an incumbent statewide Democrat who according to conventional wisdom would win in the primary, and who bragged about voting with the President 74% of the time. Yet on primary day, this incumbent Democrat received 46% of the vote. The second place finisher/runoff opponent was a Republican who received 27% of the […]

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Decision 2019: JMC’s Primary Post-Mortem

Now that the primary is over, JMC has some summary thoughts about the primary election results both at the statewide and legislative level. A “red night” for statewide Republicans – Not only was Governor Edwards forced into a runoff that many pundits thought wasn’t going to happen, but even with an incumbent Democrat who downplayed […]

Decision 2019 – Conclusion of in person early voting in Louisiana

In person early voting concluded last night (mail in absentees can still be accepted up to the day before Election Day), and it broke some records. What did early voting this year tell us? Strong turnout As of last night, 374,190 Louisianians either early voted by person or by mail in ballot (340,480 in person, […]

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Decision 2019–Day 1 of Louisiana Early Voting – Thanks,Coach O!

In person early voting is now underway for the 2019 statewide elections in Louisiana and will continue until next Saturday, October 5 (after which, mail in absentee ballots will be accepted for another week). What did yesterday’s early vote tell us ? Near record early voting turnout, but…… Twice in recent election cycles, examining the […]

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Decision 2019: JMC’s guide to 2019 Legislative Elections in Louisiana

Louisiana is one of three states (Mississippi and Kentucky are the others) who have statewide elections this year. And while the Governor’s race will certainly be competitive (as evidenced by this recent JMC poll), races for the state legislature are a similarly important part of the political landscape. Historically, Democratic dominance in Louisiana was exemplified […]

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2018 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting

While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Recently, the July 1, 2018 population estimates were released for each of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? Slower population growth: For […]

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