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Decision 2020: “Mini” Tuesday and more “Joe (Biden) mentum”

What a difference that a second place finish in a caucus state can make. Before the Nevada caucuses, Joe Biden’s campaign was on the ropes after weak finishes both in Iowa and New Hampshire. Yet his finishing second in the Nevada caucuses (thanks to black and union support) enabled him to get the necessary black […]

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Decision 2020: Super Tuesday and “Joe (Biden) mentum”

Updated 3/4 PM and 3/5 AM to reflect Bloomberg and Warren withdrawals Super Tuesday has concluded, and former Vice President Joe Biden has staged an incredible comeback. He certainly didn’t look like a viable candidate until recently: he started off with a fourth place finish in Iowa and 15% of the vote. In New Hampshire, […]

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Decision 2020: The South Carolina Democratic Primary

(UPDATED 3/1 PM REGARDING BUTTIGIEG WITHDRAWAL) With each additional Democratic contest, the nomination contest comes into clearer focus, although Joe Biden’s unambiguous victory tonight merely keeps him in the race, as the composition of the South Carolina Democratic electorate certainly won’t be replicated in the gauntlet of contests that the remaining five Democratic (Tom Steyer […]

Decision 2020: The New Hampshire Democratic Primary

(Note: updated at 10PM 2/12) With the Iowa caucuses behind us, primary season has finally begun with the “first in the nation” New Hampshire primary, and we can finally start to see the Democratic race take shape: Record turnout: In Iowa, Democratic turnout was the second highest ever, but it could be argued that a […]

Decision 2019: JMC’s Runoff Post-Mortem

As both the decade and the 2019 election cycle comes to a close, JMC would like to analyze the results through the prism of the December 2002 runoff that saw Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu re-elected, as there are similarities between that race and Governor John Bel Edwards’ successful re-election race (that comparison was also made […]

Decision 2019 – Conclusion of runoff in person early voting in Louisiana

In person early voting concluded last night (mail in absentees can still be accepted up to the day before Election Day), and it broke some records. What did seven days of runoff early voting tell us? Strong turnout As of last night, 489.649 Louisianians either early voted by person or by mail in ballot (451,171 […]

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Decision 2019 – “Halftime Report” for Runoff Early Voting in Louisiana

We have now passed the midway point for in person early voting for the November 16 runoff – four days’ worth of early voting are in the rear view mirror, with three more days (today/Thursday, Friday, and Saturday) to go. What has four days of early voting told us? (Close to) record early voting turnout […]

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Decision 2019 – Day 1 of runoff early voting (Louisiana Democrats channel Bill Clinton)

After one term in office as Governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton was defeated when he ran for re-election in 1980. Experts attributed his upset loss to “three Cs” – (1) car tags (Governor Clinton substantially increased the license plate fees in his first term), (2) Cubans (after Fidel Castro allowed over 100,000 Cubans to emigrate […]

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Decision 2019: Comparing John Bel Edwards’ (2019) and Mary Landrieu’s (2002) races

Picture this runoff scenario: an incumbent statewide Democrat who according to conventional wisdom would win in the primary, and who bragged about voting with the President 74% of the time. Yet on primary day, this incumbent Democrat received 46% of the vote. The second place finisher/runoff opponent was a Republican who received 27% of the […]

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Decision 2019: JMC’s Primary Post-Mortem

Now that the primary is over, JMC has some summary thoughts about the primary election results both at the statewide and legislative level. A “red night” for statewide Republicans – Not only was Governor Edwards forced into a runoff that many pundits thought wasn’t going to happen, but even with an incumbent Democrat who downplayed […]