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Decision 2018: Watching for Blue (or Red) Waves

Now that Labor Day has passed, political season has truly begun. And ever since January, JMC has been continuously analyzing political data to make a proper assessment of this year’s political climate. And with only the Louisiana primary (November 6 primary/December 8 runoff) remaining, this would be a good time to revisit the “state of […]

Decision 2018: “Super Tuesday”, and waiting on California

Last night was the “Superbowl of primaries”, with eight primaries held across the country from New Jersey to California. And it was generally a good night for Democrats, particularly in California. Given the number of contests, JMC will focus separately on each state for the next few paragraphs. New Jersey There is a “good news/bad […]

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Decision 2018: “Red South” vs “Bluer South”

Three more states – all in the South – held primaries last night: Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky. Since there were no statewide races in Kentucky (only partisan Congressional primaries), JMC will focus the rest of the discussion on what went on in Arkansas and Georgia. Ever since Reconstruction, the South has been thought of as […]

Decision 2018: Applying the “Hillary Clinton test” to election results

Four more states (Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Idaho, and Oregon) held their primaries last night. And in each case, there was evidence of either increased Democratic or reduced Republican enthusiasm relative to previous midterm elections. Although if we’re using these turnout figures to predict midterm election results on a state by state basis, the “Hillary Clinton test” […]

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2017 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting

Earlier today, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed the July 1, 2017 Census estimates by parish for Louisiana and briefly discussed the political impacts of population shifts since the 2010 Census. This analysis will focus on a practical application of those revised population estimates: the impact on each of Louisiana’s six Congressional districts. As with any redistricting […]

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2017 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish

While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Earlier today, July 1, 2017 population estimates were released for each of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? For decades, Louisiana’s rate […]

Decision 2018: Reading the Texas Tea Leaves

Primary season for the 2018 midterms has begun with the conclusion of last night’s Texas primary. While these were party primaries (as opposed to general elections), there are aspects to the primary results (from a turnout perspective) that both Democrats and Republicans can spin in their favor. Is a Democratic wave forming? Throughout early voting, […]

Decision 2018: Mississippi U.S. Senate poll – Republican primary

The 1994 midterm election was part of not just a Republican landslide, but arguably was the initiating event of a political realignment in the rural Deep South that swept in many Republicans who before would not have been politically viable. Roger Wicker was one of those GOP House freshmen, and he then (by appointment) ascended […]

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Louisiana voter registration trends/are Independents on the rise?

JMC Analytics and Polling periodically analyzes voter registration data updated on a monthly basis by the Secretary of State as a means of staying abreast of demographic/population trends in Louisiana.  According to the most recent (January 1, 2018) statistical report, statewide voter registration (both active and inactive voters) was 2.98 million, a number that has […]

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Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood in East Baton Rouge Parish – 17 months later

In August 2016, much of south Louisiana faced massive flooding. In its aftermath, JMC analyzed changes in voter registration both statewide and in East Baton Rouge Parish (voter registration counts were used as a proxy for population change, since recent Census estimates are not yet available) to assess whether the flood’s demographic impact was as […]

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