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Decision 2022: Did the “red wave” dissipate in Kansas (or not) ?

We are now well into the latter half of the 2022 election cycle, as 36 states have concluded their primaries. This past week (after a July hiatus only interrupted by Maryland’s primary), primary elections resumed in full force with primaries in six states, including swing states like Michigan and Arizona. However, from the tone of […]

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Decision 2022: Is a Republican wave forming? (June 29 update)

The 2022 midterm election cycle has now passed the halfway point, with 29 states’ having conducted their primaries. Candidate qualifying has also concluded in 48 states – only Delaware and Louisiana are left. Ever since JMC has been following the primary calendar starting with the Texas primary on March 2, his observation about this being […]

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Decision 2022: Is a Republican wave forming? (May 17 update)

Despite a slow start, the 2022 midterm primary season is well underway, and last night’s series of five primaries means that 10 states have chosen their party’s nominees for the November elections. And as primary season unfolds (19 more states will be holding their primaries between next Tuesday and June 28), there are additional signals […]

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Decision 2022: Is a Republican wave forming?

While midterm elections are 8 months away, primary season kicked off last night in Texas (the first primary of the 2022 election cycle). Even with only one primary being held, there are some signals that can be discerned from the data at this point. In assessing the extent of a possible partisan shift, JMC prefers […]

Decision 2020: Georgia U.S. Senate Runoff Polls

Georgia is a state that best exemplifies the tension between both the “new South” and the “old South.” A generation ago, the continuously booming suburbs in and around Atlanta brought Republicanism to this once solidly Democratic state (which was one of a handful of states to stick with Jimmy Carter in his 1980 landslide defeat […]

Decision 2020: Did the pollsters get it right (or wrong) this time?

As the 2020 Presidential election cycle (with the notable exceptions of two Senate runoffs in Georgia and Congressional certification of the Electoral College vote for President) concludes, the discussion that occurs every four years of whether pollsters “missed the mark” on the Presidential election results has returned front and center to the political discourse. Let’s […]

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Decision 2020: JMC’s Post Election Day thoughts

Given the votes being reported so far in the Presidential race, the Presidential election has been decided in favor of former Vice-President Joe Biden, who has the necessary 270 electoral votes to win. What are some national (and local) takeaways from this election ? Very high turnout election: In 2016, nearly 137 million voted in […]

Decision 2020: JMC’s “Election Soundbites” (October 27 edition)

We are now in the home stretch of the 2020 Presidential election cycle. Today is the last day to early vote in Louisiana (Louisiana’s early voting has seen record numbers – more on that later), and other states will similarly conclude their early voting this week. Given that we are nearing the end, JMC will […]

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Decision 2020 – “Two day warning” for early voting (Are ONE million early voters possible in Louisiana?)

Ever since its introduction nearly 15 years ago, Louisianians are increasingly choosing to vote before Election Day. Adding to that tendency has been the coronavirus pandemic, as voter access both to early and mail in voting has been expanded this year. So what have eight days of early voting told us ? Continued record early […]

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Decision 2020 – Day 1 of Early Voting (Very long lines, social distancing, and record turnout)

Increasingly, Louisianians are choosing to vote before Election Day. Adding to that tendency has been the  coronavirus pandemic, as voter access both to early and mail in voting has been expanded this year. So what did the first day of early voting tell us ? Record early voting turnout, which benefitted Democrats In recent election […]

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