In person early voting started yesterday for the October 14 primary. The special election for Treasurer is at the top of the ballot. This election cycle also contains New Orleans municipal elections and various special elections around the state such as for Public Service Commissioner, district/appeals court judge, and state representative. In person early voting […]
Archive | Analysis
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2017: Alabama US Senate special election runoff
For two decades, Jeff Sessions represented Alabama in the United States Senate. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump chose Sessions to be Attorney General, and a special election was called to fill his vacant seat. Both parties held their primaries on August 15, and on the Democratic side, Doug Jones received 64% of the primary […]
Decision 2017: Alabama US Senate special election primary
For two decades, Jeff Sessions represented Alabama in the United States Senate. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump chose Sessions to be Attorney General, and a special election was called to fill his vacant seat. Both parties held their primaries tonight (with 8 Democrats and 10 Republicans running), although (UPDATED 8/16 PM) 72% of the primary […]
Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood, a year later (Part II: East Baton Rouge impact)
In the previous analysis, it was determined that in general, the parishes included in the federal disaster declaration were not affected (from a population growth standpoint) by the flooding of last August. East Baton Rouge Parish, however, did not see any growth in its voter population since the flood, which would suggest that this parish […]
Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood, a year later (Part I: statewide impact)
Nearly a year ago, massive flooding occurred through most of South Louisiana, and JMC in October 2016 and January 2017 analyzed voter registration changes to assess whether this flood was a “Katrina event” (i.e., the scope of devastation sparked a massive resettlement into other parts of the state and/or to other states). In each analysis, it was […]
Decision 2018: Republicans dodge four bullets (so far)
The 2016 elections rearranged the electoral furniture (so to speak) at the Presidential level: Donald Trump posted numbers in blue collar and rural areas well above the norm for Republican candidates, while longtime Republican strongholds like the metropolitan areas of Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta (even locally, in affluent parts of East Baton Rouge and Jefferson […]
Decision 2017: Why (a special Congressional election in) Kansas matters
As a data analyst, it is one of JMC’s beliefs that midterm/Presidential election results rarely occur in a vacuum: available data (such as changes in voter registration, partisan primary participation, the composition of the early vote, and special election results) can and does foretell what will happen before Election Day. In this instance, a Congressional […]
2016 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting
Last week, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed the July 1, 2016 Census estimates by parish for Louisiana and briefly discussed the political impacts of population shifts since the 2010 Census. In this analysis, there will be a a practical application of those population shifts by demonstrating the impact on Louisiana’s six Congressional districts. As with […]
2016 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish
While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Earlier today, July 1, 2016 population estimates were released for all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? While Louisiana’s population growth […]
Was there a “Trump realignment” in the Deep South?
Historically, political party affiliation was a function of one’s income (i.e., the wealthier one was, the more likely that he/she was Republican). Even when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, the affluent voter populations in more urbanized areas of the state could be counted to vote Republican both at the top of the ticket and […]