The 2016 elections rearranged the electoral furniture (so to speak) at the Presidential level: Donald Trump posted numbers in blue collar and rural areas well above the norm for Republican candidates, while longtime Republican strongholds like the metropolitan areas of Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta (even locally, in affluent parts of East Baton Rouge and Jefferson […]
Archive | Analysis
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2017: Why (a special Congressional election in) Kansas matters
As a data analyst, it is one of JMC’s beliefs that midterm/Presidential election results rarely occur in a vacuum: available data (such as changes in voter registration, partisan primary participation, the composition of the early vote, and special election results) can and does foretell what will happen before Election Day. In this instance, a Congressional […]
2016 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting
Last week, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed the July 1, 2016 Census estimates by parish for Louisiana and briefly discussed the political impacts of population shifts since the 2010 Census. In this analysis, there will be a a practical application of those population shifts by demonstrating the impact on Louisiana’s six Congressional districts. As with […]
2016 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish
While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Earlier today, July 1, 2016 population estimates were released for all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? While Louisiana’s population growth […]
Was there a “Trump realignment” in the Deep South?
Historically, political party affiliation was a function of one’s income (i.e., the wealthier one was, the more likely that he/she was Republican). Even when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, the affluent voter populations in more urbanized areas of the state could be counted to vote Republican both at the top of the ticket and […]
Decision 2016: Did the pollsters get it right (or wrong)?
Now that the 2016 Presidential election cycle has concluded, there has been considerable discussion about whether pollsters as a whole “missed the boat” on predicting the Presidential race. Did they ? To evaluate, there are two aspects of the 2016 Presidential polls that JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed: (1) how well the polls predicted the […]
Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood, revisited
Back in October, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed voter registration statistics in all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes to determine whether the August 2016 flood that hit south Louisiana especially hard (more so than the 1983 flood) was a “Katrina event” (i.e., the scope of the devastation sparked a massive resettlement into other parts of the […]
Decision 2016: East Baton Rouge…or “East Baton Bleu” Parish?
The late Clyde Vidrine once noted as long ago as 1971 that “the vote in Baton Rouge didn’t often match up with the rest of Louisiana.” Back when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, that meant that East Baton Rouge Parish was a relatively isolated Republican island surrounded by solidly Democratic parishes. As Louisiana has […]
Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s “No Tossups Allowed” Presidential/Senate scorecard
In 49 states, election season will be over tomorrow (Louisiana has several races which will go into a December 10 runoff). Now that JMC has incorporated all polling up to this afternoon, what does he think will happen with the Presidency and/or Senate ? PRESIDENT: Clinton 275, Trump 263 […]
Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s “Swing State Tracker”
Given that there has been substantial movement in the polls this past week, what is REALLY happening with the Presidential race right now? Since this racet is not so much a national contest as it is 50 simultaneous state contests, where the race is or is heading in marginal states is critical for a proper analysis […]