Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood, a year later (Part I: statewide impact)

Nearly a year ago, massive flooding occurred through most of South Louisiana, and JMC in October 2016 and January 2017 analyzed voter registration changes to assess whether this flood was a “Katrina event” (i.e., the scope of devastation sparked a massive resettlement into other parts of the state and/or to other states). In each analysis, it was determined there did not seem to be a population exodus brought about by the August 2016 flooding.

Now that some more time has passed, that analysis is being made again both at the statewide level and in East Baton Rouge Parish. Below is how voter registration has changed at the statewide level since August 1, 2016:

Parishes included in federal disaster declaration








Statewide: 0.9% increase in voter population;
Flooded parishes (defined above): 1.0% increase in voter population (1.9% for Ascension, 1.4% for Livingston, and 0.1% for East Baton Rouge);
Parishes that didn’t flood: 0.8% increase in voter population.

The East Baton Rouge numbers (which are noticeably less than both the statewide average and neighboring parishes) are interesting, and will be the subject of the next analysis.