As the 2016 election cycle progresses, the prevalent narrative is that, as the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump has energized Democrats, as evidenced by a spike in voter registration. Is this narrative supported by the data? To evaluate this assertion, JMC Analytics and Polling examined changes in partisan voter registration since January 1, 2016. The methodology/assumptions used were as […]
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RSS feed for this section2015 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish
While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts estimates of the Census population for all counties/parishes across the nation. And just yesterday, population estimates were released for all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? While […]
Decision 2016: The Iowa caucuses
The Iowa caucuses have concluded, with (as this article is being written) 99% of the Republican vote and 95% of the Democratic vote counted. What are the takeaways ? Republicans (1) Ted Cruz’s w 28-24% win over Donald Trump proves once again that the grass roots matters – quite simply, Ted Cruz had a ground game that […]
(The end of) Decision 2015: What happened ?
At the onset of the 2015 election cycle, Senator David Vitter was considered the prohibitive favorite for Governor. Yet at the conclusion of last night’s runoff, his 44% showing was the worst statewide showing for a Republican candidate in a competitive race since the 1991 runoff, when Edwin Edwards defeated David Duke 61-39%. What conclusions can be […]
Decision 2015: Final Statewide poll
JMC Analytics and Polling conducted this poll independently on the statewide races, and as will be apparent, the race has tightened since last week. You can view the poll results below: JMC Statewide Executive Summary November 20
Decision 2015: Statewide poll
This poll was conducted independently by JMC Analytics and Polling on the statewide races. You can view the poll results below: JMC Statewide Executive Summary
Decision 2015: Runoff Early Voting “Post Game Report”
In person early voting has concluded, although absentee ballots can still be accepted for several more days. What does the early vote data tell us ? (1) Consistently higher turnout – Despite Veterans Day’s taking away a day of early voting, early voting averaged 42,978 per day in the runoff, while in the primary, it […]
Decision 2015: Runoff Early Voting “Half Time Report”
We are half way though with early voting, and with no early voting today for Veterans Day, there are three more days to early vote. What have the cumulative three day statistics told us ? (1) Consistently higher turnout – For each of the three days of early voting, it has been consistently been higher than […]
Decision 2015: Runoff Day 1 Early Voting Report
Early voting started yesterday for the November 21, 2015 runoff. What did yesterday’s numbers tell us ? (1) Higher Turnout – First day turnout was 12% higher than it was in the first day of the primary (it was 42,131 yesterday and 37,611 in the primary); (2) Somewhat more Democratic – The racial composition of […]
Decision 2015: An analytical post-mortem
The October 2015 primary election has concluded, and the governor’s race was a surprise to many, as Rep. John Bel Edwards (D-Amite) posted an unambiguous 40-23% margin over Republican Senator David Vitter (he received 23% of the white vote and 85% of the black vote). Below is a summary of tonight’s election/turnout data: Low voter […]