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(The end of) Decision 2015: What happened ?

At the onset of the 2015 election cycle, Senator David Vitter was considered the prohibitive favorite for Governor. Yet at the conclusion of last night’s runoff, his 44% showing was the worst statewide showing for a Republican candidate in a competitive race since the 1991 runoff, when Edwin Edwards defeated David Duke 61-39%. What conclusions can be […]

Decision 2015: Runoff Early Voting “Post Game Report”

In person early voting has concluded, although absentee ballots can still be accepted for several more days. What does the early vote data tell us ? (1) Consistently higher turnout – Despite Veterans Day’s taking away a day of early voting, early voting averaged 42,978 per day in the runoff, while in the primary, it […]

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Decision 2015: Runoff Early Voting “Half Time Report”

We are half way though with early voting, and with no early voting today for Veterans Day, there are three more days to early vote. What have the cumulative three day statistics told us ? (1) Consistently higher turnout – For each of the three days of early voting, it has been consistently been higher than […]

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Decision 2015: Runoff Day 1 Early Voting Report

Early voting started yesterday for the November 21, 2015 runoff. What did yesterday’s numbers tell us ? (1) Higher Turnout – First day turnout was 12% higher than it was in the first day of the primary (it was 42,131 yesterday and 37,611 in the primary); (2) Somewhat more Democratic – The racial composition of […]

Decision 2015: An analytical post-mortem

The October 2015 primary election has concluded, and the governor’s race was a surprise to many, as Rep. John Bel Edwards (D-Amite) posted an unambiguous 40-23% margin over Republican Senator David Vitter (he received 23% of the white vote and 85% of the black vote). Below is a summary of tonight’s election/turnout data: Low voter […]

Decision 2015: Early Voting “Postgame Report”

In person early voting has concluded. Here’s what the numbers tell us about next Saturday’s primary: (1) Lower turnout than last year’s election: 222,162 have early or absentee voted as of yesterday. This volume is 6% lower than it was at the end of in person early voting for the November 2014 primary (236,088 early/absentee […]

Decision 2015: Early Voting “Half Time Report”

Three days of early voting have occurred for the October 24, 2015 primary (early voting ends this Saturday). What have the numbers cumulatively told us ? (1) Slowdown in activity: As of yesterday, 88,184 early voted or mailed in their ballot. This is 8% less than the early voting volume after three days of early […]