Early voting is now underway for the October 24, 2015 primary. What did yesterday’s numbers tell us ?
(1) High initial interest: Yesterday, 37,611 early voted or mailed in their ballot. This is nearly identical to the first day numbers for the November 2014 primary, when 38,620 early/absentee voted;
(2) Democrats got out their vote: Similarly, the racial composition of those who early voted yesterday was 69-29% white/black. To put these numbers in proper perspective, the Louisiana electorate as of 10/1/2015 was 66-31% white/black. And of the last four midterms (2010, 2011, 2014 primary, and 2014 runoff), a 69-29% white/black early voting population on the first day is again similar to the November 2014 figures, when the breakdown was 67-31% white/black. Similarly, the party breakdown of 52-34% Democrat/Republican is similar to the 54-33% figure after the first day of early voting for the November 2014 primary;
So what do these numbers tell us about projected voter turnout ? While predictions will be more accurate as we accumulate more early voting data throughout the upcoming week (in person early voting runs from October 10-17), right now, the statistics suggest a turnout between 46 and 58% (for the sake of context, October 2011 turnout was 37%, while it was 52% in the November 2014 primary)