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Decision 2018: A “distant early warning” from Illinois

Two weeks ago, Texas was the first state to hold its primary for the 2018 midterm elections. Last night, Illinois held its primary. And just like Texas, the Illinois results are pointing towards a much higher degree of Democratic enthusiasm than was present for the primaries for the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections – enthusiasm […]

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Decision 2018: “John Bel” Lamb wins in Pennsylvania

Context The 2016 Presidential election was a realignment election just like previous Presidential elections in 2008, 1992, and 1980 were. In 2016, Donald Trump rewrote the rules of victory that had been in place between 1992 to 2012 by making substantial gains in ancestrally Democratic rural and/or blue-collar areas. As he was adding those voters […]

Decision 2018: (Special Election) Jefferson Parish Sheriff/ Constable Poll

The late John Maginnis once noted in The Last Hayride that “there was a time in this state when only two political offices really counted: governor and sheriff. Just about everyone else derived power from them or stayed out of the way.” Accordingly, the sheriff of Jefferson Parish (the second largest parish in Louisiana, according […]

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Decision 2018: Reading the Texas Tea Leaves

Primary season for the 2018 midterms has begun with the conclusion of last night’s Texas primary. While these were party primaries (as opposed to general elections), there are aspects to the primary results (from a turnout perspective) that both Democrats and Republicans can spin in their favor. Is a Democratic wave forming? Throughout early voting, […]

Decision 2018: Nebraska statewide poll

In national elections, there is hardly a more Republican-friendly state than Nebraska (which hasn’t voted Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide). In statewide elections, it usually (but not always) votes for Republicans. In this poll, JMC tested the re-elect/job favorability numbers for Governor Pete Ricketts and Senator Deb Fischer (who won their last campaigns with […]

Decision 2018: Mississippi U.S. Senate poll – Republican primary

The 1994 midterm election was part of not just a Republican landslide, but arguably was the initiating event of a political realignment in the rural Deep South that swept in many Republicans who before would not have been politically viable. Roger Wicker was one of those GOP House freshmen, and he then (by appointment) ascended […]

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Louisiana voter registration trends/are Independents on the rise?

JMC Analytics and Polling periodically analyzes voter registration data updated on a monthly basis by the Secretary of State as a means of staying abreast of demographic/population trends in Louisiana.  According to the most recent (January 1, 2018) statistical report, statewide voter registration (both active and inactive voters) was 2.98 million, a number that has […]

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Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood in East Baton Rouge Parish – 17 months later

In August 2016, much of south Louisiana faced massive flooding. In its aftermath, JMC analyzed changes in voter registration both statewide and in East Baton Rouge Parish (voter registration counts were used as a proxy for population change, since recent Census estimates are not yet available) to assess whether the flood’s demographic impact was as […]

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Decision 2018: Is a Democratic wave forming?

Midterm elections are 10 months away. And given that they are generally unfavorable to the party in power, the predominant question this year is not only whether there will be a partisan shift towards the Democrats, but if the shift will be large enough to flip control of either (or both) houses of Congress. In […]

Decision 2017/2018: Dissecting the Alabama results

The US Senate special election race in Alabama to replace the seat vacated by Jeff Sessions has finally concluded. Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Moore 50-48%. Jones’ margin of victory was 20,700 votes, while another 22,800 Alabamians chose a write-in candidate. From an analysis of the results, what lessons are there to be learned from […]