JMC Analytics and Polling was recently commissioned to do a poll in Louisiana both for the Presidential and the (24 candidate) U.S. Senate race. Among its findings: For the U.S. Senate race, five candidates now have a path to the runoff, While Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell and Republican Congressman Charles Boustany lead the field, Republican […]
Archive | Louisiana
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s August 28 Presidential scorecard
Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state (1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) […]
JMC Analytics and Polling’s “A-B-Cs” of polling
In a political or issue campaign, substantial resources are spent on TV, direct mail, Internet advertising, social media, and the like to communicate its message to voters. But how can campaigns evaluate whether these communications were effective? That’s where polling comes in, and a properly constructed poll is the most effective (and objective) way to […]
Decision 2016: Has Donald Trump “spiked” Democratic voter registration ?
As the 2016 election cycle progresses, the prevalent narrative is that, as the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump has energized Democrats, as evidenced by a spike in voter registration. Is this narrative supported by the data? To evaluate this assertion, JMC Analytics and Polling examined changes in partisan voter registration since January 1, 2016. The methodology/assumptions used were as […]
2015 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish
While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts estimates of the Census population for all counties/parishes across the nation. And just yesterday, population estimates were released for all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? While […]
Decision 2016: “Super Saturday”/Louisiana primary results
Until Super Tuesday, Donald Trump set the narrative for each primary contest, as he was an apparently unstoppable juggernaut. That changed on March 1, when he had a good (but not a great) night by carrying 7 out of the 11 GOP contests. And after a less than stellar debate performance this past Thursday night […]
Decision 2016: Louisiana’s primary – what does it take to win?
Louisiana is holding its Presidential primary on Saturday, March 5, and early voting is already underway. Given that the race will be held in the aftermath of the 14 state contests on March 1 (also known as “Super Tuesday”) we will undoubtedly get some attention from the candidates. So what does it take for a […]
“Bite sized politics”: Upset in the Louisiana House
In Louisiana, the governor has traditionally has a lot of power, and some of that power includes the tradition of selecting the House and Senate leadership at the beginning of a governor’s administration. However, the 2015 elections resulted in a “split decision”, where the Governor’s chair was recaptured by the Democrats after being out of […]
(The end of) Decision 2015: What happened ?
At the onset of the 2015 election cycle, Senator David Vitter was considered the prohibitive favorite for Governor. Yet at the conclusion of last night’s runoff, his 44% showing was the worst statewide showing for a Republican candidate in a competitive race since the 1991 runoff, when Edwin Edwards defeated David Duke 61-39%. What conclusions can be […]
Decision 2015: Early Voting “Half Time Report”
Three days of early voting have occurred for the October 24, 2015 primary (early voting ends this Saturday). What have the numbers cumulatively told us ? (1) Slowdown in activity: As of yesterday, 88,184 early voted or mailed in their ballot. This is 8% less than the early voting volume after three days of early […]