Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state

(1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average of 50% (or at least a 10 point lead in the polls) or more gets this classification;

(2) Lean Democratic/Clinton or lean Republican/Trump (light blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Clinton (or Trump) percentage between 53-59% gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average percentage of 49% or less with a lead of between 3-10 points will get this classification;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – If there was any polling done, a candidate leads by less than 3 points or the 2012 election results had the winning candidate (Obama or Romney) receiving 52% or less;

Presidential Scorecard as of August 28

2012 Electoral Vote: Barack Obama – 332, Mitt Romney 206

Current Electoral Vote (based on last 14 days’ polling): Hillary Clinton – 291, Donald Trump 165, Undecided 82

• Moved Colorado and Michigan from “Solid Clinton” to “Leans Clinton” since the last scorecard;
• Moved Florida and North Carolina from “Leans Clinton” to “Tossup”;
• Moved Missouri from “Leans Trump” to “Tossup.”

Presidential Race as of August 28

At this point in the Presidential election cycle, a pattern has been established. Donald Trump has been slowly but surely gaining in the polls, until he commits a gaffe, then Hillary Clinton opens up a mild (but not substantial) lead in the polls. And that is what happened this past week: Clinton’s 44-39% lead over Trump (with 12% supporting a third party candidate) shrunk a bit to 43-38% (with 12% supporting a third party candidate). Similarly, Obama’s approval rating tightened a bit, from 51-46% to 51-47%.

While the race has tightened in several swing states (Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina are now “Tossup” states), Trump has not yet reaped the benefit of the tightening of the race nationally, and that (his ability or inability to flip those states) is ultimately what will determine who wins the Presidential race.

What has been interesting about the past week is that the long awaited “pivot” from the Trump campaign since he clinched the nomination after defeating Ted Cruz in Indiana has begun: not only has Trump initiated an effort to seek black and Latino support, but he has sent out a trial balloon about softening his stance on immigration policy. This pivot is something that, if consistently followed though, could make him more appealing to undecided and/or soft partisans, although it is critical that he not commit any more gaffes, and he MUST turn in a credible debate performance against Clinton.

In the near term, there is another variable Trump must account for: early/absentee voting is actually not that far off: starting on September 9, absentee ballots will be mailed out in North Carolina, and several states will start their in person voting on September 23.

In conclusion, Donald Trump seems to have “bottomed out”, and has enjoyed some new momentum, but what remains to be seen (absent any major gaffes, of course) is the extent to which he can invest substantial resources in swing states to compete against the advertising that the Clinton campaign is already running there.