Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state

Note: Starting with the next “scorecard”, JMC will be analyzing poll averages for the last seven (and not the last 14) days.

(1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average of 50% (or at least a 10 point lead in the polls) or more gets this classification;

(2) Lean Democratic/Clinton or lean Republican/Trump (light blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Clinton (or Trump) percentage between 53-59% gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average percentage of 49% or less with a lead of between 3-10 points will get this classification;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – If there was any polling done, a candidate leads by less than 3 points or the 2012 election results had the winning candidate (Obama or Romney) receiving 52% or less;

Presidential Scorecard as of September 4

2012 Electoral Vote: Barack Obama – 332, Mitt Romney 206

Current Electoral Vote (based on last 14 days’ polling): Hillary Clinton – 291, Donald Trump 165, Undecided 82 (same as last week)

• Moved New Hampshire from “Leans Clinton” to “Solid  Clinton” since the last scorecard;
• Moved Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin from “Solid Clinton” to “Leans Clinton” since the last scorecard;

Presidential Race as of September 4

In the last scorecard, JMC noted that Donald Trump had begun to gain in the polls. This trend continued this past week, as a 43-38% Clinton lead (with 12% supporting a third party candidate) tightened up a bit to a three point lead (43-40% Clinton lead, with 11% supporting a third party candidate). Accordingly, several swing states saw the Presidential numbers tighten up a bit as well, as what were secure Clinton leads in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin are now contests where Trump has a fighting chance. And as this was happening, President Obama’s approval rating tightened a bit, from 51-47% to 50-47%.

Trump’s “gaffe free week” continued for the second week in a row, and he arguably benefitted from his decision to take a trip to Mexico to meet its President. And despite the fact that immediately after the trip, he gave a tough immigration speech that clearly showed that he wasn’t going to “pivot” on his immigration stance after all, it looks like there was no negative impact to his poll numbers.

While Trump was going on the “message offensive”, he also indicated that he was turning up the dial (so to speak) by running television ads in five more states in addition to the four where ads were already running. However, it’s unlikely he can match the $67 million dollars in expenditures by the Clinton campaign (or related groups).

Assuming that the Trump campaign can avoid major gaffes, the debates (which begin in three weeks) then become critical for both Trump and Pence to show that they are “Presidential material” to those who are still undecided (or who are supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson). And as this is happening, the election clock takes on added importance: in less than a week, absentee ballots will be mailed out in North Carolina, and early voting commences in a handful of states in less than three weeks.

In conclusion, Donald Trump seen momentum for the second week in a row, although that momentum is not yet enough to flip any “swing states” in his direction.