Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state

(1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average of 50% or more gets this classification;

(2) Lean Democratic/Clinton or lean Republican/Trump (light blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Clinton (or Trump) percentage between 53-59% gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, an Obama (or Trump) average percentage of 49% or less with a lead of 3 or more points will get this classification;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – If there was any polling done, a candidate leads by less than 3 points or the 2012 election results had the winning candidate (Obama or Romney) receiving 52% or less;

Presidential Scorecard as of July 4

2012 Electoral Vote: Barack Obama – 332, Mitt Romney 206

Current Electoral Vote (based on last 14 days’ polling): Hillary Clinton – 266, Donald Trump 191, Undecided 81 (moved Iowa and New Hampshire to “Leans Clinton” since last week’s scorecard)

Presidential race as of July 4

Has Donald Trump’s slide in the polls stopped? For the first time in several weeks, Hillary Clinton actually received less favorable coverage than Donald Trump, as a private, unplanned meeting between Bill Clinton and Attorney General Loretta Lynch immediately aroused suspicions about whether the Clintons were trying to influence the FBI’s forthcoming decision to indict (or not to indict) the former Secretary of State over use of personal emails to conduct government business. Furthermore, her weekend interview with the FBI over her use of a private email server wasn’t the kind of publicity she/her campaign needed, since it brought up – again – the “private email server” issue that has been a distraction for her candidacy since last year.

Furthermore, national polling data confirms that the race has somewhat tightened: a seven point Hillary Clinton lead in last week’s scorecard is now a five-point lead (44-39% over Trump, with 12% going to third party candidates). Furthermore, President Obama’s approval rating (50-47%) is slightly down from the 51-46% approval rating he had in last week’s scorecard.

Nothing has radically changed in the state by state polling: while JMC Analytics and Polling moved both Iowa and New Hampshire to “leans Clinton”, it’s also important to note that in each state, only two polls were conducted during our analysis period. So we’re only seeing the partial picture of what is going on there.

The atmospherics of the race remain unfavorable to incumbents, which is why Clinton can’t take this election for granted: voters remain pessimistic (by a 66-25% margin) about the direction of the country, while Congressional job approval is 71-12% negative. When you combine these metrics with a tightening approval rating for President Obama and a narrow 46-44% preference for a generic Democratic Congressional candidate, you get a picture that is not favorable towards either major party.

In less than two weeks, the Republicans will hold their convention, while the Democratic convention is a week later. Why do the party conventions matter ? Because other than the debates, the conventions are an opportune time for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump to establish the rationale for their candidacies. And the Vice Presidential pick that each candidate makes (which may be revealed before or during the conventions) will certainly provide some insight into the caliber of person who would staff each candidate’s administration.

In summary, Hillary Clinton has an advantage in the race, but her advantage is tenuous, and the party conventions will give each party a chance to put their best foot forward.