In person early voting is now underway for the 2018 midterm elections in Louisiana and will continue until next Tuesday, October 30 (after which, mail in absentee ballots will be accepted for another week). What did yesterday’s early vote tell us ? High early voting turnout, but…… Only two times have examining the first day’s […]
Archive | Analysis
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/12 US Senate scorecard – The Road To 51
In last week’s scorecard, JMC Analytics and Polling noted that the aftermath of the Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings brought a “second wind” to Republican candidacies in several tight Senate races; more specifically, Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota fell substantially behind for the first time, thus making Republicans’ maintaining control of the Senate a […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/9 Statehouse scorecard – The Road To 26
As part of its pre-election analysis, JMC Analytics and Polling has been examining verifiable election data (like polling and primary election results) to make assessments of Congressional races. However, what goes on at the statewide level is important as well, since governors have the ability to help shape policy. And given that this is generally […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/5 US House scorecard – The Road To 218
11 days ago, JMC assessed the partisan climate of 435 US House races using a combination of election and polling data. In making these assessments, JMC considered the electoral reality that the “split ticket” voter (i.e, a voter who supports candidates from different parties for Presidential and “downballot” races such as Congressional races) has been […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/4 US Senate scorecard – The Road To 51
Last week, JMC Analytics and Polling brought back the Scorecard for Senate races, and that scorecard showed Republicans with a plurality lead in Senate races. Has anything changed since last week ? First, let’s talk about the criteria JMC uses to score each of the 35 Senate races on the ballot this year: Scorecard Criteria […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 9/27 US Senate scorecard – The Road To 51
Now that election season is here, JMC Analytics and Polling is focusing on how House, Senate, and Governor’s races are going. Recently, US House races were analyzed. This article will focus on the Senate races. Background Theoretically, this should be a good year for GOP Senate candidates, given that Democrats have had an lengthy string […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 9/24 US House scorecard – The Road To 218
How stable is GOP control of the US House of Representatives, now that midterm elections are six weeks away? To objectively answer this question, JMC has evaluated all House districts that are in (or can be put into) play by using a combination of election and polling data. To put JMC’s analysis in proper context, […]
Decision 2018: Watching for Blue (or Red) Waves
Now that Labor Day has passed, political season has truly begun. And ever since January, JMC has been continuously analyzing political data to make a proper assessment of this year’s political climate. And with only the Louisiana primary (November 6 primary/December 8 runoff) remaining, this would be a good time to revisit the “state of […]
Decision 2018: “Super Tuesday”, and waiting on California
Last night was the “Superbowl of primaries”, with eight primaries held across the country from New Jersey to California. And it was generally a good night for Democrats, particularly in California. Given the number of contests, JMC will focus separately on each state for the next few paragraphs. New Jersey There is a “good news/bad […]
Decision 2018: “Red South” vs “Bluer South”
Three more states – all in the South – held primaries last night: Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky. Since there were no statewide races in Kentucky (only partisan Congressional primaries), JMC will focus the rest of the discussion on what went on in Arkansas and Georgia. Ever since Reconstruction, the South has been thought of as […]