Introduction The 2018 federal election season (with the exception of possible runoffs in Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi) is coming to a close. As this article is being written, over 38 million nationally (including a record setting 315K in Louisiana) have already voted either by mail or in person (for comparisons sake, 27 million early voted […]
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RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2018 – Conclusion of in person early voting in Louisiana
Early voting finished last night (mail in absentees can still be accepted up to the day before Election Day), and it was a record breaker in several ways. What did early voting this year tell us? Strong turnout/Newton’s Third Law As of last night, a record 307,237 have either early voted by person or by […]
Decision 2018 – “Halftime Report” for Early Voting in Louisiana
We are now at the midway point for in person early voting, now that three days’ worth of early voting in the rear view mirror, with four more days (today/Friday, Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday) to go. What has three days of early voting told us? Turnout remains strong The first day of in person early […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/12 US Senate scorecard – The Road To 51
In the last Senate scorecard published two weeks ago, JMC noted that Republicans’ chances continued to improve to the point that they could feel better about their chances of maintaining their Senate majority. Now that early voting is almost all “full steam ahead” (only parts of Florida and Oklahoma have yet to start in person […]
Decision 2018 – (First Day of) Early Voting in Louisiana
In person early voting is now underway for the 2018 midterm elections in Louisiana and will continue until next Tuesday, October 30 (after which, mail in absentee ballots will be accepted for another week). What did yesterday’s early vote tell us ? High early voting turnout, but…… Only two times have examining the first day’s […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/12 US Senate scorecard – The Road To 51
In last week’s scorecard, JMC Analytics and Polling noted that the aftermath of the Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings brought a “second wind” to Republican candidacies in several tight Senate races; more specifically, Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota fell substantially behind for the first time, thus making Republicans’ maintaining control of the Senate a […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/9 Statehouse scorecard – The Road To 26
As part of its pre-election analysis, JMC Analytics and Polling has been examining verifiable election data (like polling and primary election results) to make assessments of Congressional races. However, what goes on at the statewide level is important as well, since governors have the ability to help shape policy. And given that this is generally […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/5 US House scorecard – The Road To 218
11 days ago, JMC assessed the partisan climate of 435 US House races using a combination of election and polling data. In making these assessments, JMC considered the electoral reality that the “split ticket” voter (i.e, a voter who supports candidates from different parties for Presidential and “downballot” races such as Congressional races) has been […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/4 US Senate scorecard – The Road To 51
Last week, JMC Analytics and Polling brought back the Scorecard for Senate races, and that scorecard showed Republicans with a plurality lead in Senate races. Has anything changed since last week ? First, let’s talk about the criteria JMC uses to score each of the 35 Senate races on the ballot this year: Scorecard Criteria […]
Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 9/27 US Senate scorecard – The Road To 51
Now that election season is here, JMC Analytics and Polling is focusing on how House, Senate, and Governor’s races are going. Recently, US House races were analyzed. This article will focus on the Senate races. Background Theoretically, this should be a good year for GOP Senate candidates, given that Democrats have had an lengthy string […]