(Note:Now that the tempo of the general election season has accelerated, we have shortened the time period of the “look back” period for polls from 15 to 7 days, and it will remain at that interval for the remainder of election season) Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 7 days) Obama vs Romney: 49-46% President Obama […]
Archive | 2012 Election
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2012 – Can we trust the polls ?
Part I: Introduction In a political race (particularly the Presidential race), there is a “horse race” aspect to it: people (particularly influentials and campaign donors) are interested in knowing who’s ahead, who’s fallen behind, who has a chance, who is a lost cause, and so forth. One of the means this narrative can be shaped […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s September 27 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 15 days) President Obama job approval: 49-47% approve/disapprove (was 49-47% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 46-44% Democratic (was 46-44% Democratic) US Senate Projections: 48 Democrats, 46 Republicans, 1 Independent, 5 Tossups (was 47-44-1 Democratic) Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 17 Democrats, 1 Independent, 2 Tossups (was 30-18 Republican)
Decision 2012 – Can Mitt Rommey win ?
Is the Mitt Romney campaign beyond the point of being able to win? That is the narrative that is being repeated in the media right now. We decided to independently assess his chances by using publicly available polling data. The reason we are using poll data is that is the best metric (before any votes […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s September 20 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 15 days) President Obama job approval: 49-47% approve/disapprove (was 48-48% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 46-44% Democratic (was 45-44% Democratic) US Senate Projections: 47 Democrats, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent, 8 Tossups (was 47-47-1 Republican) Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 18 Democrats, 1 Independent, 1 Tossup (was 30-19 Republican)
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s September 14 Presidential scorecard
(Note: now that the general election season has begun, we have revised the format of these weekly updates and have shortened the “look back” period for polls from 30 to 15 days) Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 15 days) President Obama job approval: 48-48% approve/disapprove (was 47-49% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 45-44% Democratic (was 42-43% […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s September 7 Presidential scorecard
(Note: now that the general election season has begun, we have revised the format of these weekly updates) Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 30 days) President Obama job approval: 47-49% approve/disapprove (was 47-50% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 42-43% Republican (was 44-42% Republican) US Senate Projections: 49 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent, 6 Tossups (was 49-45-1 […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s August 30 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics President Obama job approval – last 30 days: 47-50% approve/disapprove (was 47-50% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote – last 30 days: 44-42% Republican (was 44-42% Republican) Congressional retirements (including defeats): 67 (56 in the House and 11 in the Senate) Congressional Primary defeats: 14 (13 in the House and 1 in the […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s August 23 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics President Obama job approval – last 30 days: 47-50% approve/disapprove (was 47-50% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote – last 30 days: 44-42% Republican (was 44-42% Republican) Congressional retirements (including defeats): 66 (55 in the House and 11 in the Senate) Congressional Primary defeats: 13 (12 in the House and 1 in the […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s August 16 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics President Obama job approval – last 30 days: 47-50% approve/disapprove (was 47-49% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote – last 30 days: 44-42% Republican (was 44-42% Republican) Congressional retirements (including defeats): 66 (55 in the House and 11 in the Senate) Congressional Primary defeats: 13 (12 in the House and 1 in the […]