Part 1: Summary Statistics

• President Obama job approval – last 30 days: 47-50% approve/disapprove (was 47-50% approve/disapprove)
• Generic Congressional Vote – last 30 days: 44-42% Republican (was 44-42% Republican)
• Congressional retirements (including defeats): 67 (56 in the House and 11 in the Senate)
• Congressional Primary defeats: 14 (13 in the House and 1 in the Senate)

Part 2: Projections (based on average of last 30 days of polling where states have held their primaries)

US Senate: 49 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 1 Independent, 5 Tossups (was 49-47-1 Republican in last scorecard)

• Projected Republican gains in Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota , and Wisconsin
• Republican held seat in Indiana too close to call
• Democratic held seats in Connecticut, Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia too close to call
• Republican held seat in Maine has an Independent in the race who is staying above 55% in polling
• (Note: 3 out of 33 Senate contests have not yet had their party primaries, so we are not in a position to call those races).

Governor: 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent (was 30-19 Republican in last scorecard)

• Projected Republican gain in North Carolina
• (Note: 2 out of 11 Governor’s races do not have the party nominees selected yet, so we are not in a position to call those races).

Part 3: How we call a state – President, Governor, Senate

We believe that the best way to make our state by state calls in the Presidential race is to look at the actual percentage President Obama is receiving in the polls (and NOT the margin by which President Obama leads (or trails) Mitt Romney in any poll). There is a simple reason for this: when you’re talking about a controversial incumbent, those who are not explicitly supporting him in the polls will almost certainly end up voting for Romney on Election Day. Therefore, we have been compiling poll results by state and taking the average of that state’s poll results for the last 30 days. In the process of doing so, we have also considered Obama’s 2008 showing as a yardstick. Here are our criteria (which will be similar for statewide races for Governor or Senator):

(1) Safe Democratic/Obama or safe Republican/Romney (dark blue/red) – if no polls have been conducted within the last 30 days for that state, a 2008 Obama (or McCain) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, an Obama (or Romney) average of 50% or more gets this classification;

(2) Lean Democratic/Obama or lean Republican/Romney (light blue/red) – if no polls have been conducted within the last 30 days for that state, a 2008 Obama (or McCain) percentage between 53-59% gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, an Obama (or Romney) average percentage of 49% or less with a lead of 3 or more points will get this classification;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – if there was polling done, a candidate leads by less than 3 points or the 2008 election results had the winning candidate (Obama or McCain) receiving 52% or less;

(4) Senate/gubernatorial primary has not been held yet (or, no polls have been publicly released) (gray)

(5) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2012 for this state (black)

Part 4: Presidential Scorecard (270 electoral votes required to win): Obama 225, Romney 191, Undecided 122 (prior scorecard: 231-191 Obama)

Presidential Election as of August 30

Senate Election as of August 30

Gubernatorial Election as of August 30

This week, the Republican convention is the main attraction (although those living in Louisiana and Mississippi were more focused on Hurricane Isaac). Accordingly, there was not much going on with regards to state by state polling, although the race has tightened again in Nevada, so we are reclassifying that state from “leans Democratic” to “tossup.”

It will be interesting to see what extent the Republicans will enjoy a “bounce” from their convention. Next week, the Democrats hold their convention in Charlotte, North Carolina from September 4-6. After that, the Presidential race begins to accelerate. In a sense, “election season” will be the month of September, since early voting starts on September 21 in South Dakota, and will gradually extend to other states throughout the rest of September and the month of October. In fact, by the time the candidates meet in their first debate on October 3, early voting will be underway in  six states (Louisiana’s in person early voting is from October 23-30).

We have repeatedly noted that while the point spread between Obama and Romney is important, it’s even more important to consider the percent of the vote President Obama is getting in the polls, since Mitt Romney is likely to pick up the lion’s share of the undecided vote as the challenger of a controversial incumbent whose record with the voters is fairly well known. Furthermore, the electoral position of the President is far less rosy if you compare his poll position against his 2008 percentages.

In the “solid Obama” (dark blue) states that have conducted polling, Obama’s average share of the vote relative to 2008 has dropped from 60 to 53% – an 7% “plunge.” This drop has been remarkably consistent over the past few months, and suggests there is a sort of ceiling of support here for the Obama campaign. Granted, a 7 point “plunge” in these states would likely not cost Obama any of these states (which cast 191 electoral votes), but it does put him in an “underwater” situation in less Democratic terrain. Furthermore, the fact that Obama’s poll position is only greater than 52% in of these states in this category (Massachusetts. New York, Vermont, and Washington) is further evidence that his support is more tentative than it was in 2008.

Once you look at the “lean Obama” states (light blue), you again see a plunge in support relative to 2008 has plunged from 54 to 49%. Furthermore, Mitt Romney’s average in these states (worth 34 electoral votes) is 42%. A 7 point poll deficit in these states is not impossible for Romney to make up over the next 68 days.

In the tossup states, the “Obama plunge” is from 54 to 47%, and Romney is averaging 46%. This is where the election will be decided, as 122 electoral votes are at stake here (this includes the recent entry of Nevada).

Finally, in the “leans Romney” or “solid Romney” states, the plunge is from 43 to 37%. Because of the greater Republican intensity this year, any hopes Obama has for carrying states (like Georgia and Arizona) where he was competitive in 2008 have faded.

Since we believe that most of those not explicitly for Obama will likely break towards Mitt Romney in the end, if we were to assume that the states where Obama is not polling at least 50% are Romney states, he (Romney) could receive up to 327 electoral votes (270 electoral votes are required to win).

Part 5: Primary Results/Upcoming Events

This past week, primaries were held in Alaska, Arizona, and Vermont (Oklahoma also had its party runoffs). There were few surprises, although Republican freshman Ben Quayle (son of former Vice-President Dan Quayle) was defeated in the primary against a fellow Republican in a contest that was the result of redistricting putting both freshmen in the same seat. While Quayle was more of a Republican “establishment” candidate (and his opponent was more of a TEA Party candidate), it’s also worth noting that Quayle was not a strong candidate to begin with: in his initial election, he won his primary with 22%, and he only defeated a Democrat in the November 2010 election with 52% of the vote. He actually ran BEHIND John McCain’s 2008 showing.

At this point in time, we are nearly finished with the primaries: 45 states have conducted their primaries. Next Thursday September 6 is the Massachusetts primary. This will be quickly followed up with primaries in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island on Tuesday, September 11 (Louisiana is not holding its primaries until November).