Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 15 days)

President Obama job approval: 49-47% approve/disapprove (was 49-47% approve/disapprove)

Generic Congressional Vote: 46-44% Democratic (was 46-44% Democratic)

US Senate Projections: 48 Democrats, 46 Republicans, 1 Independent, 5 Tossups (was 47-44-1 Democratic)

Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 17 Democrats, 1 Independent, 2 Tossups (was 30-18 Republican)

Part 2: Presidential Scorecard (270 electoral votes required to win): Obama 290, Romney 191, Undecided 57 (prior scorecard: 278-206 Obama)

(Note: blue = safe Democratic, light blue = leans Democratic, yellow = tossup, light red = leans Republicans, red =solid Republican)

Presidential Election as of September 27

Senate Election as of September 27

Gubernatorial Election as of September 27

Even though President Obama’s post-convention bounce (and the Republicans’ lack thereof) has faded, Romney has not yet been able to generate any forward momentum, despite the fact that the Obama job approval and Generic Congressional ballot remained unchanged. Here are the changes to our scorecard:

• Michigan and Wisconsin: “Leans Democratic” to “Solid Democratic”
• Nevada and Iowa: “Tossup” to “Leans Democratic”
• Missouri: “Solid Republican” to “Leans Republican”
• North Carolina: “Solid Republican” to “Tossup”
• South Dakota: “Leans Republican” to “Solid Republican”

Is the election over? We had performed an analysis last week that showed the election was very much in play for Romney, provided that he could start moving the polls in his direction. Even with the latest wave of polling, the election is still within grasp. However, there is a time factor to contend with. The first debate is next Wednesday, October 3. As of the time this article is being written, mail in ballots are being accepted in 30 states, and 5 states are undergoing in person early voting (in fact, over 10K ballots have already been cast). Most likely, those who are participating at this point are hard core partisans, but once in person voting spreads to other states, you will have voters participating who are less firmly anchored towards one or another candidate, and it is with those voters that Romney needs to establish himself as a credible alternative to President Obama.

Part 3: What does it take for Romney to win ?

We would like to independently analyze the Presidential election by using actual polling data to confirm or debunk the media narrative that Obama has essentially been re-elected. As such, we firmly believe that understanding the context of polling data is essential for proper conclusions to be drawn. Part of that understanding involves inclusion of the polling numbers from the last week of the 2008 campaign and comparing them against the last 15 days of polling at the statewide level. When that analysis is performed, a different portrait of the current state of the 2012 election begins to emerge.

2012 vs 2008 comparison

If we take the polls in 2008 and 2012 at face value, it is apparent that President Obama has a 290-191 electoral vote lead. However, inclusion of 2008 polling data shows that he is running behind his 2008 poll showings in several states by enough of a margin that we do not think that this point that he could/would ultimately carry Iowa, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Given that belief, a 290-191 lead for Obama shrinks to 284-216.

Furthermore, if you examine President Obama’s current poll showings against his 2008 polling numbers, you will immediately notice that (this is in the column on the right) in five states (Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, Ohio, and Virginia), we project that President Obama would only get 51% of the vote. Assuming a similar turnout as 2008 (though this is a questionable assumption, we are making it in the absence of any early voting data to confirm or deny this assumption), it would take 516K more Romney votes in these states (or flipping of 258K Obama votes) for Romney to carry these states. Doing this would bring Romney’s electoral vote total up to 295, which would be more than enough to win.

From a practical standpoint, however, some of these “51% states” will be easier to flip than others. We think that Colorado and Florida would be the easiest to flip, although this would only bring Romney up to 254 electoral votes (the 216 electoral votes we think that is Romney’s, plus Colorado’s 9 electoral votes and Florida’s 29 electoral votes).

After that, we think Ohio would be slightly easier to flip than Virginia (given the demographics of each state), which from Romney’s perspective is a good thing: Virginia alone (which has 13 electoral votes) would not bring him to 270 electoral votes, while Ohio’s 18 electoral votes would.

All in all, it would take a minimum of 375K additional Romney votes (or switching 188K Obama votes) in three states for him to win. You’ll note that we deliberately didn’t mention Minnesota – even though the poll numbers show a 3% decline from his (Obama’s) 2008 showings, a Republican has not carried the state since the 1972 Nixon landslide. In fact, in the last two decades, Republicans have only received 50% of the statewide vote twice out of 12 elections.

Part 4: Early Voting Updates

As of the time this article is being written, absentee voting is underway in 30 states, while in person early voting is underway in 5 states. Given that North Carolina and Iowa are swing states, we are closely watching early voting statistics there. We know so far that in North Carolina, 7878 ballots have been returned and accepted (three times the number from last week). From these accepted ballots, the racial breakdown is 86-10% white/black and 49-32% Republican/Democrat. While this is an uptick (from the Republicans’ point of view) from last week, in 2008, 228K ballots were mail ins, and the racial breakdown was 89-7% white/black and 54/28% Republican.

However, the fact that the mail in ballots being returned have a higher black percentage (and, thus, a more Democratic tilt) than 2008 is only a small part of the picture. For one thing, mail in ballots were only 9% of the early vote volume in 2008 (the remaining 91% came from in person early voting, which starts on October 18).

There is another factor as well: we examined where these ballots are coming from. In North Carolina, four counties in and around Charlotte and Raleigh are the Democratic core of the state and together cast 25% of the vote, with 62% going to Obama. Thus far, 16% of mail in ballots are coming from those counties. While this is an increase from last week’s figures, this percentage is still 9% less than it was in 2008, which suggests that you have more of a rural conservative (and likely pro Romney) tilt to absentee ballots coming in compared to 2008.

Overall, the stakes continue to rise the closer we get to Election Day: by next Friday (October 5), five more states (Connecticut, Florida, Nebraska, New York, and Ohio) will begin accepting mail in ballots; of those states, Nebraska and Ohio will also begin in person early voting. Needless to say, the Florida and Ohio figures will be the ones we are most interested in, as Obama’s margin of victory in 2008 arguably came from early votes (incidentally, 30% of Ohio’s votes and 52% of Florida’s votes were cast before Election Day) in those states (“In person” voting in Louisiana commences on October 23).