Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 15 days)

President Obama job approval: 49-47% approve/disapprove (was 48-48% approve/disapprove)

Generic Congressional Vote: 46-44% Democratic (was 45-44% Democratic)

US Senate Projections: 47 Democrats, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent, 8 Tossups (was 47-47-1 Republican)

Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 18 Democrats, 1 Independent, 1 Tossup (was 30-19 Republican)

Part 2: Presidential Scorecard (270 electoral votes required to win): Obama 278, Romney 206, Undecided 54 (prior scorecard: 241-206 Obama)

(Note: blue = safe Democratic, light blue = leans Democratic, yellow = tossup, light red = leans Republicans, red =solid Republican)

Presidential Election as of September 20

Senate Election as of September 20

Gubernatorial Election as of September 20

This past week was generally favorable to Democrats: we had mentioned in last week’s column that because of the absence of post-convention polling from several swing states, this would be the week that any residual post-convention “bounce” for President Obama would register. And that, in fact, is what happened. If you look at President Obama’s approval rating, the Generic Congressional Ballot, and the average of polls conducted at the statewide level, there was a noticeable uptick for Obama in general and Democratic candidates specifically. Below are the states where we have made changes to our scorecard since last week:

• Ohio and Wisconsin: “Tossup” to “Leans Democratic”
• New Hampshire: “Leans Democratic” to “Tossup”
• Kentucky and North Carolina: “Leans Republican” to “Solid Republican”

Last week was (at least from the tenor of his press coverage) not a good week for Mitt Romney: secretly videotaped remarks he made noting that 47% of Americans were Obama supporters and dependent on the government certainly did not help the campaign in terms of its media coverage. Beyond the media firestorm, it doesn’t seem that the remarks hurt him: a Gallup poll taken in the aftermath of his remarks showed that 36% would be less likely to vote for Obama, 20% more likely, and for 43%, the remarks made no difference. In other words, the remarks actually helped or didn’t matter to 63% of the voters.

So now that President Obama has seen the extent of his post-convention “bounce” in all swing states except Iowa (which has not been polled since the Republican convention), we will be able to assess the impact that the ad barrage Romney is about to unleash will have. Arguably, the next 2-3 weeks are critical, because by then, 10 states will have in person early voting underway (including the swing states of Iowa and Ohio), while 45 states will be accepting mail in absentee ballots. Furthermore, the first debate is on October 3.

As we analyze the polls, the media tends to obsess over the relative poll standings between Obama and Romney. But another number we’re watching is President Obama’s absolute position in the polls, as well as how well he did in 2008. Here’s what we’re seeing:

“Solid Obama” states: Obama’s average share of the vote relative to 2008 has dropped from 60 to 54% – a 6% “plunge” which has been consistent for several months. While this “plunge” isn’t worth any additional electoral votes for Romney (these states altogether cast 201 electoral votes – 37% of the total), it will depress President Obama’s popular vote margin. It also suggests that in these states, there is a ceiling of support here for the Obama campaign, and a 6 point “plunge” would put him in an “underwater” situation in less Democratic terrain. Curiously, while he leads in the polls with over 50%, he only dominates (i.e., polls higher than 60%) in New York and Vermont.

“Lean Obama” states: Here, the plunge in support relative to 2008 is 5 points (from 54 to 49%), which again has been remarkably consistent for months. Furthermore, Mitt Romney’s average in these states (worth 77 electoral votes) is 43%. These states are certainly not “lost causes” for Romney, even if he’s reduced his media exposure in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

“Tossup” states: the “Obama plunge” is from 54 to 47%, and Romney is averaging 46%. So despite the post-convention bounce and unfavorable press coverage, Romney’s standing in these states (which cast 54 electoral votes) has remained relatively constant. Incidentally, Iowa (which is in this category) begins its in person early voting next week.

“Leans” or “Solid” Romney states: the plunge is from 43 to 38%. Romney has little to worry about from these states, and it’s worth remembering that in 2008, Obama was competitive in five of these states and carried two of them,

Since we believe that most of those not explicitly for Obama will likely break towards Mitt Romney in the end, if we were to assume that the states where Obama is not polling at least 50% are Romney states, he (Romney) could receive up to 288 electoral votes (270 electoral votes are required to win). More pessimistically, if one wants to believe that 1/3 of the undecideds will stick with President Obama in these swing states, Obama would be re-elected with 284 electoral votes. However, the election is still 47 days away, so if this was Romney’s worst week (from an Electoral College standpoint), he is still in the game.

Part 3: Early Voting Updates

As of this article, absentee voting is underway in four states (North Carolina started two weeks ago, and has since been joined by Indiana, Kentucky, and Wisconsin). Since North Carolina is a swing state, we are paying close attention to the absentee voting underway there. The results so far have been mixed: As of the close of business September 19, 48961 have requested an absentee ballot, and 2828 (a tenfold increase since last week) ballots have been returned and accepted. From these accepted ballots, the racial breakdown is 83-13% white/black and 45-36% Republican/Democrat. Which is impressive on the surface until you realize that in 2008, absentee voting consisted of 227799 mail in ballots, with a racial breakdown of 89-7% white/black and 54/28% Republican.

However, the fact that the mail in ballots being returned have a higher black percentage (and, thus, a more Democratic tilt) than 2008 is only a small part of the picture. For one thing, mail in ballots were only 9% of the early vote volume in 2008 (the remaining 91% came from in person early voting, which starts on October 18).

There is another factor as well: we examined where these ballots are coming from. In North Carolina, four counties in and around Charlotte and Raleigh are the Democratic core of the state and together cast 25% of the vote, with 62% going to Obama. This far, only 11% of mail in ballots (half of the 2008 volume) are coming from those counties, which suggests that you have more of a rural conservative (and likely pro Romney) tilt to absentee ballots coming in compared to 2008.

At a “big picture” level, absentee voting is about to accelerate: tomorrow, 8 more states will begin accepting absentee ballots. By next Friday (September 27), a total of 30 states will be accepting mail in absentee ballots.

There’s a final piece to the pre-election puzzle: in person early voting. Given its increasing popularity, in person early voters can arguably be the margin of victory for either candidate – in 2008, more than 50% of the vote was cast before Election Day in 9 states, and Obama carried 7 of these 9 states, It’s not much remembered now, but in 2008, the Obama campaign used early voting to maximize the Democratic turnout, and this arguably made the difference in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, while in Georgia, Obama came within 5 points of winning. This means of voting commences tomorrow in Idaho and South Dakota. By next Friday, these states will joined by Iowa, Vermont, and Wyoming. (“In person” voting in Louisiana commences on October 23).