(Note: now that the general election season has begun, we have revised the format of these weekly updates and have shortened the “look back” period for polls from 30 to 15 days)

Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 15 days)

President Obama job approval: 48-48% approve/disapprove (was 47-49% approve/disapprove)

Generic Congressional Vote: 45-44% Democratic (was 42-43% Republican)

US Senate Projections: 47 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 1 Independent, 5 Tossups (was 49-44-1 Republican)

Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent (was 30-19 Republican)

Part 2: Presidential Scorecard (270 electoral votes required to win): Obama 241, Romney 206, Undecided 91 (prior scorecard: 225-191 Obama)

(Note: blue = safe Democratic, light blue = leans Democratic, yellow = tossup, light red = leans Republicans, red =solid Republican)

Presidential Election as of September 14

Senate Election as of September 14

Gubernatorial Election as of September 14

We are now in the midst of election season: both the Republican and Democratic conventions have concluded. As such, the tempo of the Presidential race (and related Congressional races) will accelerate. Since last week’s scorecard, we have made the following reclassifications to our state by state scorecard for the Presidential contest:

• Michigan: “Tossup” to “Leans Democratic”
• Minnesota: “Leans Democratic” to “Solid Democratic”
• North Carolina: “Tossup” to “Leans Republican”

It’s worth noting that because of the acceleration of the Presidential campaign, we are compressing the “look back period” for polls being conducted in various states from 30 to 15 days. Given the dominant media narrative that Obama came out of the convention with a “bump” in the polls (it is worth noting that without the distraction of Hurricane Isaac, Democrats had more viewers than the Republicans did for their convention), there has not been that much change in our scorecard. However, it’s also worth noting that several swing states have not had polls conducted since the convention, so if there is to be much of a “bump”, we think it would occur in next week’s scorecard. Beyond next week, the convention will become ancient history in the context of the “sprint to the finish.” Finally, we noticed that the Romney campaign is not running ads in Michigan and Pennsylvania now. Is this a smart move or is it a prematurely defensive one? Time will tell.

 Equally as important as the relative poll standings between Obama and Romney is President Obama’s absolute position in the polls, as well as how well he did in 2008. Here’s what we’re seeing:

“Solid Obama” states: Obama’s average share of the vote relative to 2008 has dropped from 59 to 53% – a 6% “plunge” which has been consistent for months now. This suggests there is a sort of ceiling of support here for the Obama campaign. Granted, a 6 point “plunge” in these states would likely not cost Obama any of these states (which cast 201 electoral votes), but it would put him in an “underwater” situation in less Democratic terrain. Curiously, while he leads in the polls with over 50%, he only dominates (i.e., polls higher than 60%) in New York and Vermont.

“Lean Obama” states: Here, the plunge in support relative to 2008 is 6 points (from 55 to 49%). Furthermore, Mitt Romney’s average in these states (worth 40 electoral votes) is 43%. Romney certainly is not out of the running in these states (currently Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania), and would be foolish to concede these states to the Democrats.

“Tossup” states: the “Obama plunge” is from 54 to 47%, and Romney is averaging 47%. While there are few undecideds, these are the states where there needs to be movement towards Romney, especially since some of these states (like Iowa) are a couple of weeks away from starting their early voting.

“Leans” or “Solid” Romney states: the plunge is from 43 to 38%. Because of the greater Republican intensity this year, any hopes Obama has for carrying states (like Georgia and Arizona) where he was competitive in 2008 have faded.

Since we believe that most of those not explicitly for Obama will likely break towards Mitt Romney in the end, if we were to assume that the states where Obama is not polling at least 50% are Romney states, he (Romney) could receive up to 336 electoral votes (270 electoral votes are required to win). More pessimistically, if one wants to believe that 1/3 of the undecideds will stick with President Obama in these swing states, Romney would still receive 272 electoral votes – enough to win the election. In plain English, this more pessimistic assumption still “flips” Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia to Romney.

Part 3: Primary Results

This past Tuesday, primary season concluded, as Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island held their primaries, There were no surprises or upsets in any of these primary contests. The one remaining primary (Louisiana’s) will be held in conjunction with the Presidential election and the runoff in December. This will be our last “primary update” for now.

Part 4: Early Voting Updates

Believe it or not, voting on the Presidential election has already begun – in North Carolina. As of the close of business September 12, 32,215 have requested absentee ballots, and 205 absentee ballots have been returned and accepted. Of those accepted ballots, the racial breakdown was 85-10% white/black and the party breakdown was 42-39% Republican/Democrat. To put this in perspective, there were 228K mail in absentee ballots cast in 2008, and the racial breakdown was 89-7%. In other words, the black percentage of those mailing their ballots in is slightly higher than 2008 – for now. However, it’s worth emphasizing that only 9% of the early vote volume came from mail ins (the remaining 91% came from in person early voting). And since in person voting in North Carolina doesn’t start until October 18, we have a very limited picture based on a week’s data.

Indiana and Kentucky will begin sending out mail in ballots on September 17, and by next Friday, 9 additional states (including the crucial swing state of Wisconsin) will commence their absentee voting for President. Furthermore, next Friday, in person early/absentee voting will commence in Iowa and South Dakota. Iowa’s statistics (since this is a swing state) will be especially interesting.

We see the early vote volume as a good indicator of the final result, depending on who shows up relative to 2008. While state by state polling is helpful, it is not released at consistent intervals, and different pollsters have different ways of measuring the electorate for each state.