(Note: now that the general election season has begun, we have revised the format of these weekly updates)

Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 30 days)

President Obama job approval: 47-49% approve/disapprove (was 47-50% approve/disapprove)

Generic Congressional Vote: 42-43% Republican (was 44-42% Republican)

US Senate Projections: 49 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent, 6 Tossups (was 49-45-1 Republican)

Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent (was 30-19 Republican)

Part 2: Presidential Scorecard (270 electoral votes required to win): Obama 225, Romney 191, Undecided 122 (prior scorecard: 225-191 Obama)

(Note: blue = safe Democratic, light blue = leans Democratic, yellow = tossup, light red = leans Republicans, red =solid Republican)

Presidential Election as of September 7

Senate Election as of September 7

Gubernatorial Election as of September 7

Election season has now officially begun – both the Republican and Democratic conventions have concluded. As such, the tempo of the Presidential race (and related Congressional races) will accelerate. Since last week’s scorecard, we have made the following reclassifications to our state by state scorecard for the Presidential contest:

• West Virginia: “Leans Republican” to “Solid Republican”

Equally as important as the relative poll standings between Obama and Romney is President Obama’s absolute position in the poll, as well as how well he did in 2008. Here’s what we’re seeing:

“Solid Obama” states: Obama’s average share of the vote relative to 2008 has dropped from 60 to 54% – a 6% “plunge” which has been consistent over the past few months. This suggests there is a sort of ceiling of support here for the Obama campaign. Granted, a 6 point “plunge” in these states would likely not cost Obama any of these states (which cast 191 electoral votes), but it does put him in an “underwater” situation in less Democratic terrain. Furthermore, the fact that Obama’s poll position is only greater than 52% in of these states in this category (Massachusetts. New York, Vermont, and Washington) is further evidence that his support is more tentative than it was in 2008.

“Lean Obama” states: Here, the plunge in support relative to 2008 is 6 points (from 54 to 48%). Furthermore, Mitt Romney’s average in these states (worth 34 electoral votes) is 42%. We expect that over the next 60 days that these states will be more competitive.

“Tossup” states: the “Obama plunge” is from 54 to 47%, and Romney is averaging 46%. This is where the election will be decided, and 122 electoral votes are at stake here.

“Leans” or “Solid” Romney states: the plunge is from 43 to 37%. Because of the greater Republican intensity this year, any hopes Obama has for carrying states (like Georgia and Arizona) where he was competitive in 2008 have faded.

Since we believe that most of those not explicitly for Obama will likely break towards Mitt Romney in the end, if we were to assume that the states where Obama is not polling at least 50% are Romney states, he (Romney) could receive up to 347 electoral votes (270 electoral votes are required to win).

Part 3: Primary Results

Primary season is slowly but surely coming to a close. The Massachusetts primary was held today (there were no surprises); this upcoming Tuesday (September 11), Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island will be holding their primaries. With the exception of Louisiana (which holds its primary in conjunction with the Presidential election and the runoff in December), the primary season is about to be concluded.

Part 4: Early Voting Updates

Even though the Presidential election is over eight weeks away, for those who cast their vote using mail in absentee ballots, the Presidential election has already started for those living in North Carolina. North Carolina will be joined by Indiana and Kentucky on September 17.

Those who prefer to early vote in person will be able to do so in two weeks: this type of early voting commences on September 21 in Iowa and South Dakota.

This (tracking the early voting) will be a good way of independently verifying the “will of the voter”, because in several instances, we will have 2008 data to use as our comparison. Similarly, any trends on voter registration can easily be compared against a similar time period in 2008 to see which way the partisan winds are blowing.