(Note:Now that the tempo of the general election season has accelerated, we have shortened the time period of the “look back” period for polls from 15 to 7 days, and it will remain at that interval for the remainder of election season)

Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 7 days)

Obama vs Romney: 49-46%

President Obama job approval: 49-48% approve/disapprove (was 49-47% approve/disapprove)

Generic Congressional Vote: 45-45% Republican (was 46-44% Democratic)

US Senate Projections: 50 Democrats, 45 Republicans, 1 Independent, 4 Tossups (was 48-46-1 Democrat)

Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 17 Democrats, 1 Independent, 2 Tossups (was 30-17-1 Republican)

Part 2: Presidential Scorecard (270 electoral votes required to win): Obama 275, Romney 191, Undecided 72 (prior scorecard: 290-191 Obama)

(Note: blue = safe Democratic, light blue = leans Democratic, yellow = tossup, light red = leans Republicans, red =solid Republican)

Presidential Election as of October 4

Senate Election as of October 4

Gubernatorial Election as of October 4

Note: Even though we have compressed the survey window to 7 days, we are not anticipating that any “Romney bounce” from last night’s debate will show up until the next batch of polls are released in a few days.

While Mitt Romney had another week of unfavorable polling, we also believe that he is about to get some momentum, given the near unanimous consensus that he won the Wednesday night against President Obama. Furthermore, the Presidential numbers (at a national level) only show a 3 point Obama lead, while the Obama job approval and Generic Congressional ballot moved slightly towards the Republicans. Here are the changes to our scorecard:

• Nevada: “Leans Democratic” to “Solid Democratic”
• New Hampshire: “Tossup” to “Solid Democratic”
• Pennsylvania: “Solid Democratic” to “Leans Democratic”
• Iowa and Virginia: “Leans Democratic” to “Tossup”
• Missouri: “Leans Republican” to “Solid Republican”

Furthermore, it’s also worth noting that in several polls, we found evidence  of a tilt towards the Democrats, due to the partisan breakdown of the polling model used favoring the Democrats. What’s also worth mentioning is that early voting is going on right now, and within 1-2 weeks, we expect less partisans showing and more “non political” types casting their ballots. As this article is being written, 145K early votes/absentees have already been cast. Since there is typically a time delay for these results to be reported, it’s more likely that 175-200K have already voted.

Part 3: What does it take for Romney to win?

We would like to independently analyze the Presidential election by using actual polling data to confirm or debunk the media narrative that Obama has essentially been re-elected (although, to be fair, such talk has died down in light of the first debate between Obama and Romney). As such, we firmly believe that understanding the context of polling data is essential for proper conclusions to be drawn. Part of that understanding involves inclusion of the polling numbers from the last week of the 2008 campaign and comparing them against the last 7 days of polling at the statewide level. When that analysis is performed, a different portrait of the current state of the 2012 election begins to emerge.

What it takes to win

If we take the polls in 2008 and 2012 at face value, it is apparent that President Obama has a 275-191 electoral vote lead. However, inclusion of 2008 polling data shows that he is running behind his 2008 poll showings in several states by enough of a margin that we do not think that this point that he could/would ultimately carry Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina. Given that belief, a 290-191 lead for Obama shrinks to 290-241.

Furthermore, if you examine President Obama’s current poll showings against his 2008 polling numbers, you will immediately notice that (in the “Obama 2012 % projected” column) in three states (Colorado, Minnesota, and Virginia), we project that President Obama would get 50-51% of the vote. Assuming a similar turnout as 2008 (though this is a questionable assumption, we are making it in the absence of any early voting data to confirm or deny this assumption), it would take 122K more Romney votes in these states (or flipping of 61K Obama votes) for Romney to carry them. Winning these states would bring Romney’s electoral vote total up to 273 – more than enough to win.

From a practical standpoint, however, Minnesota is a long shot – the last time it voted Republican was in 1972 (the Nixon re-election landslide). However, Minnesota has lately been performing at about the national average, so if Romney were to win the popular vote with at least 51%, he could carry Minnesota.

After that, there are two states where we project Obama would get 52% of the vote: Oregon and Pennsylvania. Granted, these states haven’t voted Republican in years (1984 for Oregon; 1988 for Pennsylvania), but given the President’s poll standings relative to 2008, 232K new Romney votes (or 116K flipped Obama votes) would be required to carry these two states.

At the present time, Ohio has moved just beyond Romney’s reach (we project Obama would get 53% there, although some of that 53% is based on unrealistic Democratic turnout projections). Still, we think it would take 208K more Romney votes (or 104K flipped Obama votes) to put Romney over the top. This is where a strong Republican early vote makes all the difference. As this article is being written, early voting is underway and 19K Ohioans have already voted. In 2008, 30% early voted, so this is not a voter bloc (i.e., the early voters) that should be ignored.

All in all, it would take a minimum of 298K additional Romney votes (or switching 149K Obama votes) in six states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) for Romney to win.

Part 4: Early Voting Updates (as of October 4)

As this article is being written, absentee voting is underway in 34 states (including all of the swing states except for Colorado and Nevada), while in person early voting is underway in 7 states. Given that North Carolina and Iowa are swing states, we are closely watching early voting statistics there. We know so far that in North Carolina, 22301 ballots have been returned and accepted (three times the number from last week). From these accepted ballots, the racial breakdown is 88-8% white/black and 53-29% Republican/Democrat. This is now roughly identical to the racial breakdown was 89-7% white/black and 54-28% Republican/Democrat breakdown from 2008. It’s worth noting that early voting enabled Obama to carry the state: he carried the early vote 56-44%, while McCain carried the Election Day vote 57-41%.

The real test of either campaign, however, will be with the in person early voting (which starts October 18), since that was 91% of the volume of those who voted before Election Day in North Carolina.

Iowa has traditionally had a strong Democratic early vote. In fact, McCain carried the state 50-48% if you were to look at Election Day voters; the early voters supported Obama 60-38%. For early voting this year, Democrats got off to a strong start (nearly 70% of the first day’s voters were Democrats). While their advantage has eroded somewhat – to 63-19% Democrat/Republican, 94K early votes have already been cast (compared to the 545K who early voted in 2008). This is one the Republicans have to watch carefully if they want to carry the state. A 63% Democratic early vote would put Iowa out of reach for Romney, since the 2008 early vote in Iowa was 46-29% Democrat/Republican.

Next week will be the “calm before the storm” (so to speak): by next Friday (October 12), eight more states (Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Montana, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Utah) will begin accepting mail in ballots. Arizona, California, and Indiana will begin their in person early voting. (“In person” voting in Louisiana commences on October 23).