The 2022 midterm election cycle has now passed the halfway point, with 29 states’ having conducted their primaries. Candidate qualifying has also concluded in 48 states – only Delaware and Louisiana are left. Ever since JMC has been following the primary calendar starting with the Texas primary on March 2, his observation about this being […]
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Decision 2022: Alabama US Senate Republican runoff poll
Richard Shelby is Alabama’s senior U.S. Senator, and he has had a long (over a half century) career of public service, between the Alabama Senate, the U.S. House, and (since 1987) the U.S. Senate. He is choosing not to run for re-election this year. In the Republican race to succeed Senator Shelby, he has endorsed […]
Decision 2022: Is a Republican wave forming? (May 17 update)
Despite a slow start, the 2022 midterm primary season is well underway, and last night’s series of five primaries means that 10 states have chosen their party’s nominees for the November elections. And as primary season unfolds (19 more states will be holding their primaries between next Tuesday and June 28), there are additional signals […]
Early Voting in Louisiana – are voters “mailing it in”? (May 2022 edition)
A generation ago, voting was an exercise conducted almost entirely on Election Day (although there was limited absentee voting allowed), and this tradition is one that has remained in Louisiana longer than in many states. That began to change in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina (and to some extent Hurricane Rita) in 2005, which caused […]
Decision 2022/3 – March 2022 Louisiana Statewide Poll
The current political climate is challenging for incumbents, with repeated waves of the coronavirus pandemic (five so far) that only recently have ebbed. Plus, inflation has returned to an extent not seen since 40 years ago, and gas prices are still at record high (nominal) levels. Throw in foreign policy challenges in Afghanistan and the […]
Decision 2022: Is a Republican wave forming?
While midterm elections are 8 months away, primary season kicked off last night in Texas (the first primary of the 2022 election cycle). Even with only one primary being held, there are some signals that can be discerned from the data at this point. In assessing the extent of a possible partisan shift, JMC prefers […]
Decision 2021: Constitutional Amendment Votes (State Senate)
Last weekend, Louisiana had four Constitutional Amendments up for a vote. The first one dealt with sales tax consolidation and failed 48-52%. The second one dealt with an income tax swap, and that one passed 54-46%. In Part Two of this analysis (the first part was published two days ago), a listing is attached of […]
Decision 2021: Constitutional Amendment Votes (State House)
This past weekend, Louisiana had four Constitutional Amendments up for a vote. The first one dealt with sales tax consolidation and failed 48-52%. The second one dealt with an income tax swap, and that one passed 54-46%. Below is a graphic of the parishes that supported/opposed those amendments. Also attached is a listing of the […]
Decision 2022: What does last night’s (mostly) “red night” mean for next year?
Elections have consequences. At the onset of the Biden Administration, Democrats for the first time since 2009 have unified control of the Presidency, the House, and (thanks to Vice President Harris’ tie breaking vote) the Senate. Yet while their signature domestic legislation remains mired in factional infighting, Democrats had a terrible night last night – […]
Decision 2022: Reading the midterm election “tea leaves”
Even though the first primaries for the 2022 midterm elections aren’t until next March, midterm elections are slowly but surely creeping up on us. What type of year will those midterms be (in terms of which party will have an advantage)? JMC will address this question from several different angles. Biden Approval Since midterm elections […]