Decision 2012 (February 1 edition)

Presidential

Even though (from a delegate count perspective, anyway), the Republican Presidential race is only 6% “complete”, the conclusion of the Florida primary is a signal that the nomination contest has entered into a new phase. This is because Florida was the first contest in which the Republican electorate was a mosaic of different ethnicities and ideologies (southerners in the Panhandle, Midwestern retirees along the southwestern Gulf Coast, northeastern retirees along the Atlantic coast, young families in Central Florida, and staunchly anti-Communist Cubans in Miami) dispersed across 10 media markets. [...]

Decision 2012 (January 23 edition)

Presidential

Rarely has a Presidential primary hinged both on a news reporter’s question, as well as the word “maybe.” Yet, the combination of these two items less than 48 hours before Saturday’s balloting during the GOP debate provided the fuel for Newt Gingrich’s 40-28% victory over Mitt Romney in South Carolina. This basically was a landslide: Romney was reduced to pluralities in three (out of 46) counties, and Saturday’s 601K voter turnout was about 33% higher than it was in the 2008 Republican primary (it’s also worth noting that the Republican primary in New Hampshire had 5% higher turnout than in 2008). [...]

Decision 2012 (January 5 edition)

Presidential

Now that the Iowa caucus has concluded with an eight vote “victory” for Mitt Romney, what are we to conclude from the results?  It is true that Mitt Romney “won” Iowa; however, if you look at the data, you realize that his victory was not that remarkable. For one thing, he essentially maintained his 2008 electoral position: he received almost the exact number of votes that he got in 2008, and he received the same 25% of the vote that he got in 2008. Additionally, Romney in 2008 had to compete against John McCain and Rudy Giuliani for the more moderate/liberal Republican voter demographic: in that election, 41% of Iowans voted for one of those three candidates. This time, Romney had that vote all to himself, so in a sense, his electoral position has slipped since 2008. You could also make the argument that conservative voters are more energized this time around. [...]

Looking back on 2011 and forward to 2012

Looking Back

Looking back on 2011, either party can claim to have “won” the elections that were held that year. From the Democratic point of view, special elections in Upstate New York and the victory on the collective bargaining vote in Ohio, combined with the near sweep of statewide elections in Kentucky, are what they believe are evidence that the 2010 Republican wave has subsided. [...]

2011 Elections, October 3 Edition

In our previous installment, we discussed the upcoming elections within and without Louisiana that will be held in October and November. In this article, we will focus only on October elections. [...]

2011 Elections, September 21 Edition

 In our previous installment, we analyzed the twin victories for the GOP in two special Congressional elections. In both cases, the “Obama plunge” (explained here) resurfaced – it was a 9 point plunge in New York, while in Nevada, the plunge was 13 points. These types of dilutions in Democratic support, if they continue, will be ominous for President Obama as he seeks to get re-elected next year. [...]

2011 Elections, September 14 Edition (Scott Brown, meet Bob Turner)

Tonight was a very good night for the Republicans, as they were victorious in Congressional special elections that were held both in New York and Nevada. The New York race was nothing short of an upset of Scott Brown proportions, so we will focus on that race today. [...]

2011 Elections, September 11 Edition

In our previous installment, we had noted the onset of Louisiana election season, as well as the fact that Democrats had written off a special House election in Nevada, while getting more nervous about their chances in a special election for a House seat in New York City. [...]

2011 Elections, September 4 Edition

In our previous installment, we noted that Mississippi has decided on its Democratic nominee for Governor, while in Wisconsin, the two Democrats up for recall survived the recall elections, thus leaving the Wisconsin Senate at 17-16 Republican. [...]

2011 Elections, August 29 Edition

In our previous installment, we noted that Democrats only achieved partial success with the attempted recall of six Republican senators. While they did recall two Republicans, one of those was due to personal issues, while the other was merely a case of Democrats mobilizing to defeat an incumbent Republican in a heavily Democratic district – Barack Obama received over 60% of the vote there. However, Republicans are still in control of both houses of the Wisconsin legislature. [...]