2010 Elections, 9/1 edition – House/Senate/Governors polls

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

As the Labor Day weekend approaches, primary season is in the “home stretch” now– the eight remaining Congressional primaries will conclude by September 18 (Louisiana’s “everything else” primary will be on Saturday, October 2). For the past several months, we based our calls on individual races on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days. Starting with this analysis, we will compress this “look back period” to 14 days, since voters are starting to tune into the fall elections now. Our rankings are based on the following criteria: [...]

Louisiana Primary Results – what do they mean for November ?

When we discussed the election results, we briefly examined the vote that David Vitter and Charlie Melancon received overall and in each parish. There are a couple more things we wanted to mention regarding Vitter and Melancon’s performance: [...]

Louisiana/West Virginia Congressional Primary results

Last night, both Louisiana and West Virginia conducted their Congressional primaries. Though the Louisiana Congressional primary was a very low turnout affair (7% overall turnout, with 13% on the GOP side and 5% on the Democratic/Independent side), there are several items which are worth mentioning: [...]

2010 Elections, 8/26 edition – House/Senate/Governors polls

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” to 14 days after Labor Day, since that’s when voters will start to pay attention to these races) using the following criteria: [...]

Recent Louisiana Senate Poll

As much as some in the media and the political class persist in their belief that David Vitter is vulnerable even to a Republican primary challenger, another poll was released today showing Senator David Vitter with a another double digit lead (51-41%) over his likely Democratic opponent, Rep. Charlie Melancon. Several things about this poll are worth noting (Poll results are here, and a previous article we did regarding poll analysis is here): [...]

2010 elections, 8/24 edition (Establishment or insurgent ?)

Primaries were held last night in Alaska, Arizona, Florida, and Vermont. Overall, primary voters sent mixed messages as to whether they prefer the safety of “establishment” candidates or the risk of insurgent candidates who may or may not have personal baggage. [...]

2010 Elections, 8/19 edition – House/Senate/Governors polls

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” to 14 days after Labor Day, since that’s when voters will start to pay attention to these races) using the following criteria: [...]

2010 Elections, 8/17 edition (the “Obama Plunge” reaches Washington)

Tonight, two states (Washington and Wyoming) held their primaries. In Wyoming, the only race of note was a crowded Republican primary for Governor, which was a proxy battle between the establishment (former President George H.W. Bush endorsed former state House speaker Collin Simpson, the son of a former senator) and the insurgents (Sarah Palin endorsed state auditor Rita Meyer). The complete but unofficial returns show Palin’s choice lost by 700 votes (Wyoming does not have runoffs, and Meyer has conceded), but the establishment choice finished 4th with 16% of the vote. [...]

The effect of the “Obama plunge” on House elections

The big unanswered question of the 2010 elections is: will the Republicans recapture the House, the Senate, or both ? Currently, the House is controlled by the Democrats 256-179, while the Senate is controlled by the Democrats by a 59-41 margin. Since most of the information about this subject on either side of the political spectrum is colored with a considerable amount of spin, we’ve decided to perform the analysis ourselves using a combination of theory and “real world” data to quantify those gains. In this article, we’re focusing on the House of Representatives. [...]

2010 Elections, 8/12 edition – House/Senate/Governors polls

2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races

Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded in mid September) using the following criteria: [...]