2012 promises to be a busy election year for the various federal, state, and local offices on the ballot this year. Part of that activity includes yard signs, political commercials, bumper stickers, and public opinion polls to be conducted for races big and small. [...]
Congressional
Current Generic Congressional Vote (14 day rolling average): 44-43% Republican
Prior Generic Congressional Vote (14 day rolling average): 42-40% Republican
The anti-incumbent wave which in 2010 cost 63 Congressmen (7 in the primary and 56 on Election Day) their jobs showed no signs of abating after last night’s primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia. The latest casualty was 36 year incumbent Republican Senator Richard Lugar (he last had a competitive race in 1982). He could only receive the support of 39% of Indiana Republicans, and his poor showing was due to a combination of things: his lengthy Senate tenure, his lack of an Indiana presence (he has not lived in Indiana in decades), and a perception that he was too accommodating to President Obama specifically and Democrats in general. [...]
Presidential -
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 658 (58%), Santorum 281 (25%), Gingrich 135, Ron Paul 51, Huntsman 2 (Source: WSJ)
Presidential Contest 4/3 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red, upcoming = white)
Primary results/looking ahead [...]
Presidential -
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 568 (55%), Santorum 273 (27%), Gingrich 135, Ron Paul 50, Huntsman 2 (Source: WSJ)
Presidential Contest 3/24 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red, upcoming = white)
Louisiana Primary – the Republican contest [...]
Presidential –
Presidential Contest 3/21 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red, upcoming = tan)
Illinois Primary [...]
March 24 is the date of Louisiana’s Presidential primary. While there are some local races on the ballot as well, we are limiting our discussion to the Republican Presidential race, as President Obama has minor opposition in the Democratic primary (three opponents qualified in Louisiana to oppose him). [...]
Presidential -
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 495 (53%), Santorum 252 (27%), Gingrich 131, Ron Paul 48, Huntsman 2 (Source: WSJ)
President Obama Job Approval 47-49% (14 day rolling average)
Presidential Contest 3/14 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)
Alabama, Mississippi, and Hawaii [...]
March 24 is the date of Louisiana’s Presidential primary. While there are some local races on the ballot as well, we are limiting our discussion to the Republican Presidential race, as President Obama has minor opposition in the Democratic primary (three opponents qualified in Louisiana to oppose him). [...]
Presidential
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 415 (56%), Santorum 176 (24%), Gingrich 105, Ron Paul 47, Huntsman 2 (WSJ)
President Obama Job Approval 47-49% (14 day rolling average)
Presidential Contest 3/7 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)
Last night, 10 states held their Presidential contests, and the results seem to indicate two things: (1) the Republican primary contest is very much still in play, and (2) the demographic battle lines are solidifying in terms of bases of support for each candidate. Frontrunner Mitt Romney’s coalition includes moderate/liberal Republicans on either coast, affluent urban neighborhoods, Western voters, and Mormons. Rick Santorum now has a national base of religious voters, middle income suburbs, and small towns, with one important exception: portions of the Deep South with a large percentage of native Southerners – that voter bloc is still solidly behind Newt Gingrich. [...]
Presidential
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 163, Santorum 83, Gingrich 32, Ron Paul 19, Huntsman 2 (WSJ)
President Obama Job Approval 47-49% (14 day rolling average)
Presidential Contest 2/29 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)
The ever changing Republican Presidential contest has now swung back to Mitt Romney, although not as decisively as he may have hoped. Despite the apparent inconsistency of the Republican contest, however, battle lines within the Republican Party have begun to form in terms of patterns of support each candidate has, which we think will be apparent in each remaining contest. Romney has become the candidate of more affluent white collar suburbs and moderate/liberal Republicans, while Santorum is getting his support from rural and/or blue collar areas, and Newt Gingrich’s appeal is the most potent in areas with a significant number of native Southerners. Let’s recap last night’s two contests through this prism: [...]
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