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Decision 2018: Republicans dodge four bullets (so far)

The 2016 elections rearranged the electoral furniture (so to speak) at the Presidential level: Donald Trump posted numbers in blue collar and rural areas well above the norm for Republican candidates, while longtime Republican strongholds like the metropolitan areas of Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta (even locally, in affluent parts of East Baton Rouge and Jefferson […]

Decision 2018: Reading the tea leaves/Another GOP close call

Has Donald Trump sparked a wave of Democratic enthusiasm that will extend into the 2018 midterms and beyond ? That is the question that political pundits have continuously been asking, their curiosity piqued by the consistently low approval ratings that have faced the President since his inauguration (according to RealClearPolitics, his current average disapproval rating […]

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Decision 2017: A near upset for Republicans in Georgia

It’s not often that Congressional special elections get the nation’s attention. The race that concluded last night in Georgia, however, was one of the occasional exceptions to that rule, as this race was believed to be an early test of Donald Trump’s/Republican popularity in “swing” areas. First, some background information: JMC Analytics and Polling has […]

Decision 2017: Why (a special Congressional election in) Kansas matters

As a data analyst, it is one of JMC’s beliefs that midterm/Presidential election results rarely occur in a vacuum: available data (such as changes in voter registration, partisan primary participation, the composition of the early vote, and special election results) can and does foretell what will happen before Election Day. In this instance, a Congressional […]

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Decision 2017: Is a Congressional Democratic “rebirth” happening?

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump six weeks ago, the perception is that Democrats have become energized, and with this renewed energy, they will be swept back into power in both houses of Congress in next year’s midterm elections. Is this enthusiasm grounded in fact? From previous analyses, JMC has noted that before a November […]

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Was there a “Trump realignment” in the Deep South?

Historically, political party affiliation was a function of one’s income (i.e., the wealthier one was, the more likely that he/she was Republican). Even when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, the affluent voter populations in more urbanized areas of the state could be counted to vote Republican both at the top of the ticket and […]

Decision 2016: Did the pollsters get it right (or wrong)?

Now that the 2016 Presidential election cycle has concluded, there has been considerable discussion about whether pollsters as a whole “missed the boat” on predicting the Presidential race. Did they ? To evaluate, there are two aspects of the 2016 Presidential polls that JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed: (1) how well the polls predicted the […]

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Decision 2016: East Baton Rouge…or “East Baton Bleu” Parish?

The late Clyde Vidrine once noted as long ago as 1971 that “the vote in Baton Rouge didn’t often match up with the rest of Louisiana.” Back when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, that meant that East Baton Rouge Parish was a relatively isolated Republican island surrounded by solidly Democratic parishes. As Louisiana has […]

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Decision 2016 – (First Day of) Runoff Early Voting in Louisiana

In person early voting started yesterday for the December 10 runoff and will continue until next Saturday, December 3. The runoff ballot contains the US Senate race, two Congressional races, the Mayor-President of East Baton Rouge Parish, and assorted local races/tax propositions. What did yesterday’s early vote tell us ? Dismal early voting turnout While early […]

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Decision 2016 – Grading JMC Analytics and Polling on its “No Tossups Allowed” scorecard

On the day before the election, JMC Analytics and Polling issued a scorecard of its Presidential and Senate predictions (83 races in all). How did it do ? It got 76 of those 83 (or 91.6%) races right, was wrong in six races, while the jury is still out on one race – Michigan has […]

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