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Decision 2018: A “distant early warning” from Illinois

Two weeks ago, Texas was the first state to hold its primary for the 2018 midterm elections. Last night, Illinois held its primary. And just like Texas, the Illinois results are pointing towards a much higher degree of Democratic enthusiasm than was present for the primaries for the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections – enthusiasm […]

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Decision 2018: “John Bel” Lamb wins in Pennsylvania

Context The 2016 Presidential election was a realignment election just like previous Presidential elections in 2008, 1992, and 1980 were. In 2016, Donald Trump rewrote the rules of victory that had been in place between 1992 to 2012 by making substantial gains in ancestrally Democratic rural and/or blue-collar areas. As he was adding those voters […]

Decision 2018: Reading the Texas Tea Leaves

Primary season for the 2018 midterms has begun with the conclusion of last night’s Texas primary. While these were party primaries (as opposed to general elections), there are aspects to the primary results (from a turnout perspective) that both Democrats and Republicans can spin in their favor. Is a Democratic wave forming? Throughout early voting, […]

Decision 2018: Nebraska statewide poll

In national elections, there is hardly a more Republican-friendly state than Nebraska (which hasn’t voted Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide). In statewide elections, it usually (but not always) votes for Republicans. In this poll, JMC tested the re-elect/job favorability numbers for Governor Pete Ricketts and Senator Deb Fischer (who won their last campaigns with […]

Decision 2018: Mississippi U.S. Senate poll – Republican primary

The 1994 midterm election was part of not just a Republican landslide, but arguably was the initiating event of a political realignment in the rural Deep South that swept in many Republicans who before would not have been politically viable. Roger Wicker was one of those GOP House freshmen, and he then (by appointment) ascended […]

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Decision 2018: Is a Democratic wave forming?

Midterm elections are 10 months away. And given that they are generally unfavorable to the party in power, the predominant question this year is not only whether there will be a partisan shift towards the Democrats, but if the shift will be large enough to flip control of either (or both) houses of Congress. In […]

Decision 2017/2018: Dissecting the Alabama results

The US Senate special election race in Alabama to replace the seat vacated by Jeff Sessions has finally concluded. Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Moore 50-48%. Jones’ margin of victory was 20,700 votes, while another 22,800 Alabamians chose a write-in candidate. From an analysis of the results, what lessons are there to be learned from […]

Decision 2017: (Special Election) Alabama U.S. Senate poll #3 – General Election

For two decades, Jeff Sessions has represented Alabama in the United Senate Senate. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump chose Sessions to be Attorney General, and a special election is being called to fill his vacant seat. Both parties held their primaries on August 15. The Democrats decided on Doug Jones in the primary. The […]

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Decision 2017: (Special Election) Alabama U.S. Senate poll #2 – General Election

For two decades, Jeff Sessions has represented Alabama in the United Senate Senate. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump chose Sessions to be Attorney General, and a special election is being called to fill his vacant seat. Both parties held their primaries on August 15. The Democrats decided on Doug Jones in the primary. The […]

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Decision 2018: Nevada Republican U.S. Senate poll #2

The state of Nevada was one of the few bright spots for Democrats last year: not only did Hillary Clinton carry the sate 48-46%, but Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto (by a 47-45% margin) kept the seat of former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Democratic hands. Furthermore, Democrats picked up two U.S. House seats (winning […]