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Decision 2018: Ohio CD 12 (special election) poll

While the state of Ohio nearly always goes with the winning Presidential candidate, the 12th Congressional District (which is located in the middle of the state and consists of areas north and east of Columbus) is a Republican district. Its Republicanism, however, is more white collar in nature, and would by today’s standards be considered […]

Decision 2018: “Super Tuesday II”, and waiting on California II

While June 5 was a “Superbowl of primaries” (eight primaries were held last week across the country from New Jersey to California), last night was an important primary night as well, with five states (from Maine to Nevada) holding primaries. And just like with last week’s article, JMC will focus separately on each state for […]

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Decision 2018: “Super Tuesday”, and waiting on California

Last night was the “Superbowl of primaries”, with eight primaries held across the country from New Jersey to California. And it was generally a good night for Democrats, particularly in California. Given the number of contests, JMC will focus separately on each state for the next few paragraphs. New Jersey There is a “good news/bad […]

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Decision 2018: “Red South” vs “Bluer South”

Three more states – all in the South – held primaries last night: Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky. Since there were no statewide races in Kentucky (only partisan Congressional primaries), JMC will focus the rest of the discussion on what went on in Arkansas and Georgia. Ever since Reconstruction, the South has been thought of as […]

Decision 2018: Texas statewide poll

In national, state, and local elections, there is hardly a more Republican-friendly state than Texas, which hasn’t voted Democratic for President since 1976 and for Governor since 1990. In statewide elections, it has only voted for Republicans for the last two decades. starting with the 1998 re-election landslide of (then) Governor George W. Bush. With […]

Decision 2018: Applying the “Hillary Clinton test” to election results

Four more states (Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Idaho, and Oregon) held their primaries last night. And in each case, there was evidence of either increased Democratic or reduced Republican enthusiasm relative to previous midterm elections. Although if we’re using these turnout figures to predict midterm election results on a state by state basis, the “Hillary Clinton test” […]

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Decision 2018: Dawn of a “Republican spring”?

Throughout both the lead-up to primary season and the first two primaries (Illinois and Texas), the author has seen numerous signs pointing to an unusually energized Democratic electorate. Last night’s primary results, however, were not so one sided against the Republicans. In fact, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can take some satisfaction in the caliber […]

Decision 2018: A “distant early warning” from Illinois

Two weeks ago, Texas was the first state to hold its primary for the 2018 midterm elections. Last night, Illinois held its primary. And just like Texas, the Illinois results are pointing towards a much higher degree of Democratic enthusiasm than was present for the primaries for the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections – enthusiasm […]

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Decision 2018: “John Bel” Lamb wins in Pennsylvania

Context The 2016 Presidential election was a realignment election just like previous Presidential elections in 2008, 1992, and 1980 were. In 2016, Donald Trump rewrote the rules of victory that had been in place between 1992 to 2012 by making substantial gains in ancestrally Democratic rural and/or blue-collar areas. As he was adding those voters […]

Decision 2018: Reading the Texas Tea Leaves

Primary season for the 2018 midterms has begun with the conclusion of last night’s Texas primary. While these were party primaries (as opposed to general elections), there are aspects to the primary results (from a turnout perspective) that both Democrats and Republicans can spin in their favor. Is a Democratic wave forming? Throughout early voting, […]