Decision 2012 (February 1 edition)

Presidential

Even though (from a delegate count perspective, anyway), the Republican Presidential race is only 6% “complete”, the conclusion of the Florida primary is a signal that the nomination contest has entered into a new phase. This is because Florida was the first contest in which the Republican electorate was a mosaic of different ethnicities and ideologies (southerners in the Panhandle, Midwestern retirees along the southwestern Gulf Coast, northeastern retirees along the Atlantic coast, young families in Central Florida, and staunchly anti-Communist Cubans in Miami) dispersed across 10 media markets. [...]

Decision 2012 (January 23 edition)

Presidential

Rarely has a Presidential primary hinged both on a news reporter’s question, as well as the word “maybe.” Yet, the combination of these two items less than 48 hours before Saturday’s balloting during the GOP debate provided the fuel for Newt Gingrich’s 40-28% victory over Mitt Romney in South Carolina. This basically was a landslide: Romney was reduced to pluralities in three (out of 46) counties, and Saturday’s 601K voter turnout was about 33% higher than it was in the 2008 Republican primary (it’s also worth noting that the Republican primary in New Hampshire had 5% higher turnout than in 2008). [...]

Decision 2012 (January 11 edition)

Presidential

UPDATE 1/11 PM The New Hampshire primary has concluded, and Mitt Romney won a clear victory with 39% of the vote – this from a state that only gave him 32% of the vote and a second place showing in 2008. As with Iowa, the conservative vote remained splintered. Unlike Iowa, the New Hampshire Republican electorate is less hospitable to conservatives (particularly Southern and/or social conservatives), and as such, Romney mostly had the more moderate electorate to himself. [...]

Decision 2012 (January 5 edition)

Presidential

Now that the Iowa caucus has concluded with an eight vote “victory” for Mitt Romney, what are we to conclude from the results?  It is true that Mitt Romney “won” Iowa; however, if you look at the data, you realize that his victory was not that remarkable. For one thing, he essentially maintained his 2008 electoral position: he received almost the exact number of votes that he got in 2008, and he received the same 25% of the vote that he got in 2008. Additionally, Romney in 2008 had to compete against John McCain and Rudy Giuliani for the more moderate/liberal Republican voter demographic: in that election, 41% of Iowans voted for one of those three candidates. This time, Romney had that vote all to himself, so in a sense, his electoral position has slipped since 2008. You could also make the argument that conservative voters are more energized this time around. [...]

Looking back on 2011 and forward to 2012

Looking Back

Looking back on 2011, either party can claim to have “won” the elections that were held that year. From the Democratic point of view, special elections in Upstate New York and the victory on the collective bargaining vote in Ohio, combined with the near sweep of statewide elections in Kentucky, are what they believe are evidence that the 2010 Republican wave has subsided. [...]

Louisiana Decides – 2011 Runoff Edition (Legislative Races)

In the previous article, we examined the BESE races and noted that not only had the reformers swept all three races that were on the ballot last night, but that a fissure seems to have developed between the black electorate and their leadership and their presumed allies, the teachers unions. In this analysis, we will look at the legislative runoff races. [...]

Louisiana Decides – 2011 Runoff Edition (BESE Board)

Last night’s runoff elections concluded the 2011 election cycle in Louisiana. Who won last night? The answer depends on which elections you’re looking at. In this installment, we will look at the three remaining races on the BESE (Board of Elementary and Secondary Education) board that were decided last night. [...]

Iowa Presidential Poll

Recently, JMC Enterprises of Louisiana was commisioned to poll Iowa Republicans on the Presidential race. Those results can be accessed here.

The Voice of Louisiana, Part III (BESE races)

In the previous article, we looked at the legislative races. In this final installment, we will look at the BESE (Board of Elementary and Secondary Education) races. [...]

The Voice of Louisiana, Part II (Legislative races)

In the previous installment, we looked at the statewide races. In this installment, we will look at the legislative races. [...]