2012 promises to be a busy election year for the various federal, state, and local offices on the ballot this year. Part of that activity includes yard signs, political commercials, bumper stickers, and public opinion polls to be conducted for races big and small. [...]
Congressional
Current Generic Congressional Vote (14 day rolling average): 44-43% Republican
Prior Generic Congressional Vote (14 day rolling average): 42-40% Republican
The anti-incumbent wave which in 2010 cost 63 Congressmen (7 in the primary and 56 on Election Day) their jobs showed no signs of abating after last night’s primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia. The latest casualty was 36 year incumbent Republican Senator Richard Lugar (he last had a competitive race in 1982). He could only receive the support of 39% of Indiana Republicans, and his poor showing was due to a combination of things: his lengthy Senate tenure, his lack of an Indiana presence (he has not lived in Indiana in decades), and a perception that he was too accommodating to President Obama specifically and Democrats in general. [...]
In our previous article, we analyzed how Baton Rouge voters approved a new property tax to fund the bus system. We would like to be even more specific and let graphical data tell the story: below is the side by side comparison between the 2010 CATS vote (which failed, but the voting “universe” was for East Baton Rouge Parish) and the 2012 CATS vote (the “voting universe” was only for the city limits of Baton Rouge, Baker, and Zachary) [...]
Turnout and intensity matter in elections. That’s the best way to explain how Baton Rouge voters, who both in 2009 and 2010 defeated proposed tax increases, passed a 10 mill property tax increase for the bus system (known locally as CATS) on the second attempt (an attempt to raise taxes to support the bus system narrowly failed in 2010). [...]
Presidential -
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 658 (58%), Santorum 281 (25%), Gingrich 135, Ron Paul 51, Huntsman 2 (Source: WSJ)
Presidential Contest 4/3 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red, upcoming = white)
Primary results/looking ahead [...]
Presidential -
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 568 (55%), Santorum 273 (27%), Gingrich 135, Ron Paul 50, Huntsman 2 (Source: WSJ)
Presidential Contest 3/24 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red, upcoming = white)
Louisiana Primary – the Republican contest [...]
Presidential –
Presidential Contest 3/21 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red, upcoming = tan)
Illinois Primary [...]
March 24 is the date of Louisiana’s Presidential primary. While there are some local races on the ballot as well, we are limiting our discussion to the Republican Presidential race, as President Obama has minor opposition in the Democratic primary (three opponents qualified in Louisiana to oppose him). [...]
Presidential -
(1144 delegates to win) Romney 495 (53%), Santorum 252 (27%), Gingrich 131, Ron Paul 48, Huntsman 2 (Source: WSJ)
President Obama Job Approval 47-49% (14 day rolling average)
Presidential Contest 3/14 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)
Alabama, Mississippi, and Hawaii [...]
March 24 is the date of Louisiana’s Presidential primary. While there are some local races on the ballot as well, we are limiting our discussion to the Republican Presidential race, as President Obama has minor opposition in the Democratic primary (three opponents qualified in Louisiana to oppose him). [...]
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