When we analyzed what we thought would happen with US House races this year, we looked at the Obama percentage in each district, the voting record of applicable House incumbents on controversial issues, and their 2008 re-election percentage. We deliberately did not perform the same analysis with the US Senate races this fall because: (1) […]
This week started off with the death of 36 year House incumbent John Murtha (Democrat from Pennsylvania). His death was quickly followed by the retirements of 76 year old Democratic incumbent Diane Watson from Los Angeles, California and Vern Ehlers, who was a 76 year old Republican from Michigan.
Last week, when we wrote on the “Obama plunge”in the wake of Republican Scott Brown’s upset victory in Massachusetts, we noted that a combination of 2008 Presidential election returns, 2008 House of Representative election results, and the voting record of House members on the “Big Three” of the stimulus, “cap and trade” and Obamacare could […]
When we analyzed the Massachusetts election returns on January 19, we noted the presence of a phenomenon called the “Obama plunge”, which refers to the drop-off in Democratic support since the 2008 Presidential election in major statewide and/or Congressional elections. This drop-off is fueled by an energized conservative base and a significant plunge in Democratic […]
There will be many lengthy post mortems written about this election, so the historic victory of Scott Brown (the last time a Republican Senator in Massachusetts was victorious was in 1972) deserves some “behind the scenes” analysis.
As voters go to the polls tomorrow in Masachusetts, we are on the cusp of a major election upset by Republican Scott Brown. To illustrate how rapidly the ground has shifted on this campaign, let’s look back at the “rolling averages” of polls taken in the last few days:
Today, a poll was released from American Research Group (ARG), which polled 600 likely voters between Tuesday-Thursday, and this poll showed a 48-45% Scott Brown lead. Couple of things worth noting:
With four days days until the election, two new polls have come out, and not only do both show Scott Brown in the lead, but both show him with at least 50% of the vote. The polls released today showed the following:
With five days until the election, a Democratic poll of 500 likely voters by Blue Mass Group/Research 2000 shows a 49-41% Martha Coakley lead. A couple of comments here:
With six days until the election, a new Rasmussen poll has come out showing the Democrat Martha Coakley with a 49-47% lead. Since this is the second poll Rasmussen has done in a week, we have a “trend” now as follows: