Throughout this election cycle, we have seen polls conducted for various races across the country that show that scores of Democrats are in trouble. What about Congressional races closer to home ?

We would like to talk about a Congressional race in the Mississippi Delta in an area roughly bounded by the Mississippi River, Natchez, Memphis, and Jackson, Mississippi/I-55. The district is majority black, but is not overwhelmingly so (in other words, there is a significant conservative voter base). The incumbent in this district is a 16 year black Democrat named Bennie Thompson who has more often than not had competitive Congressional races, but he has always won by double digits.

Recently, however, we conducted a poll of registered and/or likely voters of the district. The poll results show the incumbent with an anemic 35-34% lead over black Republican Bill Marcy. Furthermore, Rep. Thompson’s favorable/unfavorable poll ratings are 32/38%, which are not numbers you want to have as an entrenched incumbent.

We have attached the internals of this poll here, and will let you draw your own conclusions. Recently, this sleeper race has attracted the attention of the National Review Online.