The upset election of Scott Brown to the vacant Senate seat held by the late Teddy Kennedy seemed to be further confirmation of what we described in this post as the “Obama plunge.” This term referred to our belief that the percentage of the vote Barack Obama and/or Democratic Congressional candidates received in 2008 was […]
Archive | National Politics
RSS feed for this sectionAftermath of the 3/21 healthcare vote in the U.S. House
Previously in this post, we assessed the vulnerability of House Democrats by using the following criteria:
2010 Elections, March 19 edition
Scorecard
2010 elections, March 13 edition
Scorecard
2010 Elections, March 4 edition
Scorecard We have recently modified our criteria as to which House Democrats we think are vulnerable. Previously, we used the following criteria:
2010 elections, February 26 edition
Election Scoreboard as of 2/26/2010
2010 Elections, February 17 edition
Starting today, we will periodically keep you updated on the goings ons of Election 2010 by providing you with a scoreboard that graphically displays relevant data related to the fall elections. We will also discuss various happenings as Election 2010 progresses.
“Bayh Bayh” to the Senate Democratic majority ?
When we analyzed what we thought would happen with US House races this year, we looked at the Obama percentage in each district, the voting record of applicable House incumbents on controversial issues, and their 2008 re-election percentage. We deliberately did not perform the same analysis with the US Senate races this fall because: (1) […]
2010 Elections, February 11 edition (5 or 6 House retirements)
This week started off with the death of 36 year House incumbent John Murtha (Democrat from Pennsylvania). His death was quickly followed by the retirements of 76 year old Democratic incumbent Diane Watson from Los Angeles, California and Vern Ehlers, who was a 76 year old Republican from Michigan.
Aftershock of the “Massachusetts Miracle”
Last week, when we wrote on the “Obama plunge”in the wake of Republican Scott Brown’s upset victory in Massachusetts, we noted that a combination of 2008 Presidential election returns, 2008 House of Representative election results, and the voting record of House members on the “Big Three” of the stimulus, “cap and trade” and Obamacare could […]