Early voting for the Presidential election in Louisiana is underway and has crossed the halfway mark – there are only three days left to early vote in this seven day “season.” Not that the election will conclude on Tuesday, of course: mail in absentee ballots can still be accepted for another week after that, and […]
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RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2012 – JMCEL’s October 25 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 7 days) Obama vs Romney: 48-47% Romney (was 48-47% Romney) President Obama job approval: 49-48% approve/disapprove (was 49-48% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 45-44% Republican (was 45-44% Democratic) US Senate Projections: 48 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 1 Independent, 4 Tossups (was 48-47-1 Democrat) Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 16 Democrats, 1 Independent, […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s October 23 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 7 days) Obama vs Romney: 48-47% Romney (was 48-47% Romney) President Obama job approval: 49-48% approve/disapprove (was 50-47% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 45-44% Democratic (was 45-43% Democratic) US Senate Projections: 48 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 1 Independent, 4 Tossups (was 46-45-1 Democrat) Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 16 Democrats, 1 Independent, […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s October 18 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 7 days) Obama vs Romney: 48-47% Romney (was 48-47% Obama) President Obama job approval: 50-47% approve/disapprove (was 51-47% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 45-43% Democratic (was 45-44% Democratic) US Senate Projections: 46 Democrats, 45 Republicans, 1 Independent, 8 Tossups (was 47-44-1 Democrat) Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 17 Democrats, 1 Independent, […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s October 11 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 7 days) Obama vs Romney: 48-47% Obama (was 49-46% Obama) President Obama job approval: 51-47% approve/disapprove (was 49-48% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 45-44% Democratic (was 45-45% Democratic) US Senate Projections: 47 Democrats, 44 Republicans, 1 Independent, 8 Tossups (was 50-45-1 Democrat) Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 17 Democrats, 1 Independent, 2 […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s October 4 Presidential scorecard
(Note:Now that the tempo of the general election season has accelerated, we have shortened the time period of the “look back” period for polls from 15 to 7 days, and it will remain at that interval for the remainder of election season) Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 7 days) Obama vs Romney: 49-46% President Obama […]
Decision 2012 – Can we trust the polls ?
Part I: Introduction In a political race (particularly the Presidential race), there is a “horse race” aspect to it: people (particularly influentials and campaign donors) are interested in knowing who’s ahead, who’s fallen behind, who has a chance, who is a lost cause, and so forth. One of the means this narrative can be shaped […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s September 27 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 15 days) President Obama job approval: 49-47% approve/disapprove (was 49-47% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 46-44% Democratic (was 46-44% Democratic) US Senate Projections: 48 Democrats, 46 Republicans, 1 Independent, 5 Tossups (was 47-44-1 Democratic) Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 17 Democrats, 1 Independent, 2 Tossups (was 30-18 Republican)
Decision 2012 – Can Mitt Rommey win ?
Is the Mitt Romney campaign beyond the point of being able to win? That is the narrative that is being repeated in the media right now. We decided to independently assess his chances by using publicly available polling data. The reason we are using poll data is that is the best metric (before any votes […]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s September 20 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics (last 15 days) President Obama job approval: 49-47% approve/disapprove (was 48-48% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote: 46-44% Democratic (was 45-44% Democratic) US Senate Projections: 47 Democrats, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent, 8 Tossups (was 47-47-1 Republican) Governor’s Race Projections: 30 Republicans, 18 Democrats, 1 Independent, 1 Tossup (was 30-19 Republican)