Decision 2012 – Twas the night before Election Day

Tomorrow is election day across America. This has been a truly unique election season for several reasons:

(1)  An incumbent President is facing re-election with unemployment nearly at 8% ;

(2)  Mitt Romney struggled to find his voice/connect with voters until the first debate in Denver;

(3)  Americans in unprecedented numbers have decided not to wait until Election Day – as of the time this article is being written,  officially, the number is 32 million, although we think the number is closer to 40 million (32 million early voted in 2008)

(4)  Unlike 2008, the Democrats did not “run up the score” with the early vote this year;

(5)  There are two conflicting narratives that will dictate the outcome of the election tomorrow night:

  1. The unprecedented enthusiasm from Independents, minorities, and young voters from 2008 will repeat itself this year;
  2. The GOP surge in 2010 still has some life to it, and Republican enthusiasm will accordingly spike, and be strengthened by Independents dissatisfied with the performance of the Obama administration;

(6)  An “October surprise” in the form of a late season hurricane disrupting the day to day routine in several northeastern states.

Having provided that context, we will give our analysis of the Presidential and Congressional race for each state:

Presidential Race









Senate Races








Governors Races








Attached is the detail for all applicable Presidential, House, Senate, and Governor’s races. Race By Race Analysis