It’s official: both Hillary Clinton (on the Democratic side) and Donald Trump (on the Republican side) are the party nominees for President. However, last night’s results were a continuation of the narrative that has been in place for the last few weeks: Donald Trump has (despite recent gaffes) consolidated the support of Republican primary voters, while […]
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RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2016: Has Donald Trump “spiked” Democratic voter registration ?
As the 2016 election cycle progresses, the prevalent narrative is that, as the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump has energized Democrats, as evidenced by a spike in voter registration. Is this narrative supported by the data? To evaluate this assertion, JMC Analytics and Polling examined changes in partisan voter registration since January 1, 2016. The methodology/assumptions used were as […]
Decision 2016: Kentucky/Oregon primaries
At this point in the election cycle, the Republican contest has become an afterthought, as Republicans are slowly but surely coming around to Donald Trump, as evidenced by his showing in Oregon last night. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to be unable to “close the sale” with Democratic primary voters – Bernie Sanders came within 1,900 […]
Decision 2016: The “final three” compete in West Virginia and Nebraska
Last week, the Republican contest quickly came to a conclusion when Donald Trump’s overwhelming win in Indiana caused both Ted Cruz and John Kasich to exit the race within a day after balloting concluded. And despite vocal protests from various Republican officeholders and operatives, the election results show that Donald Trump has quickly consolidated the Republican […]
Decision 2016: Trump/Clinton Louisiana statewide poll
JMC Analytics and Polling recently (and independently) polled the Presidential race in Louisiana. Despite widely publicized reports of Republican defections within and without the state, Louisiana voters in general (and Republicans specifically) are strongly behind Donald Trump, despite the fact that the poll also shows him with mediocre approval ratings (his approval ratings, however, were better […]
Decision 2016: Cruz collapse, and Sanders shocker in Indiana
(UPDATED 5/4 PM) The Presidential race has come to its conclusion on the Republican side, as Ted Cruz’s disappointing showing in Indiana (combined with seven wins in a row by Donald Trump with more than 50% of the vote) caused him (and, one day later, John Kasich) to exit the race fairly quickly after the polls closed. […]
Decision 2016: Super Tuesday for the I-95 corridor
A Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton November showdown is closer to reality after tonight’s results: Donald Trump swept all five northeastern/New England states with at least 55% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton comfortably carried three states (Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania), narrowly carried Connecticut, and only lost tiny Rhode Island. We will discuss each party’s primaries below: Democratic […]
Decision 2016: New York primary results
What a difference two weeks makes. Two weeks ago, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz upset their party’s frontrunners in Wisconsin. And while both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were expected to win New York, the margin of victory for each candidate has re-established them as their party’s front runners (although, to be precise, Hillary Clinton has […]
Decision 2016: Wisconsin weighs in
Tonight, both Democratic and Republican primary voters in Wisconsin delivered unequivocal upsets to its front runners, with high voter turnout on both sides. So what happened, and what is likely to happen in upcoming contests? Democratic contest (Revised 4/6 AM) Bernie Sanders carried the state with an overwhelming 57-43% lead over Hillary Clinton. Demographics again worked […]
Decision 2016: “Western Super Tuesday” results
Last night, Republicans held their Presidential contests in Arizona and Utah, while Democrats voted in Arizona, Utah, and Idaho. What was interesting about last night contests was that a combination of very long lines at the polls (some polling places in Arizona had 3-4 hour waits) and the contests’ all being held on Mountain Time meant […]