Decision 2016: The “final three” compete in West Virginia and Nebraska

Last week, the Republican contest quickly came to a conclusion when Donald Trump’s overwhelming win in Indiana caused both Ted Cruz and John Kasich to exit the race within a day after balloting concluded. And despite vocal protests from various Republican officeholders and operatives, the election results show that Donald Trump has quickly consolidated the Republican vote, while Hillary Clinton still can’t “close the sale” with Democratic primary voters – Bernie Sanders scored yet another win in West Virginia. We will discuss each party’s primaries below:

Democratic contest  (UPDATED 5/11 AM)

While Hillary Clinton very much desires for the Democratic field to be cleared so she can pivot to general election mode, Democratic primary voters have other ideas. West Virginia’s Democrats handed Hillary Clinton yet another loss, as her remarks suggesting that she would put “a lot of coal miners would be put out of business” were naturally not well received in coal country – with 97% of the vote in, Sanders has a 51-36% lead over Clinton, and he carried every county in the state.

As with almost every previous Democratic contest, turnout was relatively weak: while the Clinton/Obama contest brought 456K voters to the polls, it is estimated that Democratic turnout tonight will only be about 240k – or a 42% drop in turnout relative to 2008. And unlike many other Democratic contests, the West Virginia ballot also had statewide and Congressional races in addition to the Presidential race.

The next few contests are not likely to be much more favorable for Clinton: Kentucky and Oregon vote next week, and after that, the Democratic primary season concludes on June 7, with primaries in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

Republican contest (UPDATED 5/11 AM)

About the only remaining suspense in Republican contests now is the extent to which Republican primary voters have accepted Donald Trump as its nominee. Because there is considerable evidence of Republican insiders’ dislike of Trump that has been well publicized, although that dislike hasn’t been shared by Republican primary voters: Donald Trump easily carried both Nebraska (with 61%) and West Virginia (with 77%).

And curiously, despite essentially running unopposed, Republican primary voters are still interested in participating in the contests (Cruz and Kasich were on the ballot in both states). And turnout remained at record levels: the 195K Republican turnout in Nebraska is a 5% increase over 2012, while West Virginia’s estimated 203K Republican turnout is an 81% increase over 2012.

For Republicans, only Oregon (next Tuesday) and Washington (May 24) remain before “Super Tuesday”, where California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota vote.