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Archive | Demographics
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2016: Has Donald Trump “spiked” Democratic voter registration? (October 22 update)
Donald Trump has run an unconventional campaign. And part of that departure from convention has been the use of controversial rhetoric that popularly has been thought to energize unregistered Democratic voters, thus making it more difficult for him to carry critical swing states and get elected. Or has he ? To best evaluate this assumption, […]
Demographic analysis of the August 2016 flood
Was the August 2016 flood that hit south Louisiana especially hard (more so than the 1983 flood) a “Katrina event”? In other words, has the devastation sparked a massive resettlement into other parts of the state (and to other states, for that matter) ? To answer this question, JMC Analytics and Polling examined changes in voter registration between […]
Decision 2016: Has Donald Trump “spiked” Democratic voter registration ?
As the 2016 election cycle progresses, the prevalent narrative is that, as the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump has energized Democrats, as evidenced by a spike in voter registration. Is this narrative supported by the data? To evaluate this assertion, JMC Analytics and Polling examined changes in partisan voter registration since January 1, 2016. The methodology/assumptions used were as […]
2015 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish
While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts estimates of the Census population for all counties/parishes across the nation. And just yesterday, population estimates were released for all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? While […]
(The end of) Decision 2015: What happened ?
At the onset of the 2015 election cycle, Senator David Vitter was considered the prohibitive favorite for Governor. Yet at the conclusion of last night’s runoff, his 44% showing was the worst statewide showing for a Republican candidate in a competitive race since the 1991 runoff, when Edwin Edwards defeated David Duke 61-39%. What conclusions can be […]
Decision 2015: An analytical post-mortem
The October 2015 primary election has concluded, and the governor’s race was a surprise to many, as Rep. John Bel Edwards (D-Amite) posted an unambiguous 40-23% margin over Republican Senator David Vitter (he received 23% of the white vote and 85% of the black vote). Below is a summary of tonight’s election/turnout data: Low voter […]
Turnout drop-off in “down ballot” races: what are the political implications?
In the elections world, human and machine imperfection are variables that have to be factored in when discussing election results, turnout, and the like. Some of those imperfections can prevent every vote cast from being counted – a reality that became apparent during the Florida recount in the 2000 Presidential race. For this article, we are […]
The “spin free truth” about Louisiana’s “cell phone voters”
Two decades ago, the advent of the Internet (specifically, the widespread use of the World Wide Web) transformed the PC from a niche product into something that has become commonplace in nearly every household. Similarly, the telephone has seen a similar transformation. Early on (in the late 1990s), the cell phone became affordable to the […]
Louisiana Census Data as of July 1, 2014
About a year ago, we had noticed that Louisiana’s population had grown 2% between April 1, 2010 (the date the Census was last taken) and July 1, 2013. This past week, the Census released population estimates by county/parish as of July 1, 2014, and Louisiana (slow) population growth continued – the 2014 estimate showed there […]