Criteria used to estimate GOP House seat gains Over the past few months, we have continually been refining our criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not. At the present time, we have projected a 76 seat House gain for the GOP based on the following criteria:
Archive | Analysis
RSS feed for this sectionThree Thoughts about Congressional Turnover
Thought #1: Putting this year’s turnover in perspective
What did “Super Tuesday” tell us ?
If there is one predominant theme from “Super Super Tuesday”, it’s that while incumbents are down, they’re certainly not out.
GOP picks up Democratic held House seat in Hawaii
We have been discussing the Hawaii special election for some time as a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. Republican Charles Djou (who served on the Honolulu City Council) has won with 40% of the vote. Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who was endorsed by the Hawaii Democratic organization, finished second with 31% of the vote, […]
2010 Elections, May 19 Edition (A final word on Pennsylvania)
Scorecard
A bad day to be an incumbent
Today was a bad day to be an incumbent or an “establishment” candidate. The bad news started yesterday, when the New York Times revealed that Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) fabricated his Vietman experience in speeches with voters (in fact, he received multiple deferments). Suddenly an open seat race thought to be safe for the […]
A tale of two polls
Recent polls released in Louisiana and in Florida not only confirm Louisiana’s current conservative mood, but also show that the poll lead that Florida’s party switching Governor currently has is built on a very weak foundation that will erode as Election Day gets closer.
Election Day in Louisiana – May 1 edition
32 parishes held elections yesterday, and there were no real surprises last night. Our focus will be on the tax renewals on the East Baton Rouge Parish ballot, as well as two special elections for state representative that were held in Baton Rouge and New Orleans.
Can Mary Landrieu be defeated in 2014 ?
Historically, incumbent Democratic Senators in Louisiana have rarely worried about their re-election. In fact, in the past 30 years, an incumbent Democrat has only fallen below the 60% mark twice: (1) In 1980, the late Russell Long was re-elected by a 58-39% margin against Woody Jenkins (who was a Democrat back then), and (2) in […]
It’s all about the Indepdendents
In a special Congressional election held tonight, the Democrats maintained their control of a staunchly Democratic district in South Florida, despite the GOP nominee’s making this race a referendum on healthcare reform. Are there any lessons to be learned from this 62-35% Democratic victory ?