We have been discussing the Hawaii special election for some time as a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. Republican Charles Djou (who served on the Honolulu City Council) has won with 40% of the vote. Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who was endorsed by the Hawaii Democratic organization, finished second with 31% of the vote, […]
Today was a bad day to be an incumbent or an “establishment” candidate. The bad news started yesterday, when the New York Times revealed that Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) fabricated his Vietman experience in speeches with voters (in fact, he received multiple deferments). Suddenly an open seat race thought to be safe for the […]
Recent polls released in Louisiana and in Florida not only confirm Louisiana’s current conservative mood, but also show that the poll lead that Florida’s party switching Governor currently has is built on a very weak foundation that will erode as Election Day gets closer.
32 parishes held elections yesterday, and there were no real surprises last night. Our focus will be on the tax renewals on the East Baton Rouge Parish ballot, as well as two special elections for state representative that were held in Baton Rouge and New Orleans.
Historically, incumbent Democratic Senators in Louisiana have rarely worried about their re-election. In fact, in the past 30 years, an incumbent Democrat has only fallen below the 60% mark twice: (1) In 1980, the late Russell Long was re-elected by a 58-39% margin against Woody Jenkins (who was a Democrat back then), and (2) in […]
In a special Congressional election held tonight, the Democrats maintained their control of a staunchly Democratic district in South Florida, despite the GOP nominee’s making this race a referendum on healthcare reform. Are there any lessons to be learned from this 62-35% Democratic victory ?
Introduction As the fall elections get closer, we’ve been analyzing the likely outcome based on available data like an incumbent’s voting record on controversial items (the stimulus, “cap and trade”, and healthcare reform), his/her 2008 re-election percentage, and the level of support for Barack Obama in those districts. This analysis has been performed while considering […]
The upset election of Scott Brown to the vacant Senate seat held by the late Teddy Kennedy seemed to be further confirmation of what we described in this post as the “Obama plunge.” This term referred to our belief that the percentage of the vote Barack Obama and/or Democratic Congressional candidates received in 2008 was […]
Previously in this post, we assessed the vulnerability of House Democrats by using the following criteria: