As this article is being written, Election Day is 14 weeks away. The predominant chatter among political pundits is not whether there will be Republican gains, but the extent of those gains, and whether those gains can produce a Republican wave large enough to enable them to retake the House, the Senate, or both houses of Congress […]
Archive | Analysis
RSS feed for this sectionEarly analysis of the Louisiana Lieutenant Governor’s Race
The conventional wisdom is that Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is a shoo in for the Lt Governor’s race. We would like to test that assumption by examining the strengths/weaknesses of the major candidates running in this race and projecting their vote totals on a parish by parish basis to predict the overall primary results.
The “Obama Plunge” – what is it ?
In several major elections held since “cap and trade” passed the U.S. House last summer, we have noted a considerable dropoff in Democratic support relative to the levels of support Barack Obama received in his 2008 Presidential race. We believe this dropoff (aka, the “Obama plunge”) can be used to evaluate the electoral prospects of Democratic congressional candidates […]
The U.S. House “deems” the 2011 budget as passed
Part One: Vote to raise the national debt ceiling Elections (past, present, and future) have consequences. Back in February, we noted that the upset victory of Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts sent a psychological shock wave to some Democrats who were beginning to get “cold feet” politically after tough votes on legislation like the stimulus, […]
(Trivial) midterm election statistics
41 – states whose Congressional filing deadlines have passed (the last filing deadline is Delaware’s, on July 30) 26 – states who have held primaries so far (the last Congressional primary is Hawaii’s, on September 18) 52 – Congressional retirements so far (23 Democrats, 29 Republicans – the recent record was set in 1992, with 70 retirements) 5 […]
Can the GOP retake Nancy’s House (Version 2.0) ?
In a previous posting, we used the following criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not:
Can the GOP retake Nancy’s House ?
Criteria used to estimate GOP House seat gains Over the past few months, we have continually been refining our criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not. At the present time, we have projected a 76 seat House gain for the GOP based on the following criteria:
Three Thoughts about Congressional Turnover
Thought #1: Putting this year’s turnover in perspective
What did “Super Tuesday” tell us ?
If there is one predominant theme from “Super Super Tuesday”, it’s that while incumbents are down, they’re certainly not out.
GOP picks up Democratic held House seat in Hawaii
We have been discussing the Hawaii special election for some time as a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. Republican Charles Djou (who served on the Honolulu City Council) has won with 40% of the vote. Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who was endorsed by the Hawaii Democratic organization, finished second with 31% of the vote, […]