Introduction As the fall elections get closer, we’ve been analyzing the likely outcome based on available data like an incumbent’s voting record on controversial items (the stimulus, “cap and trade”, and healthcare reform), his/her 2008 re-election percentage, and the level of support for Barack Obama in those districts. This analysis has been performed while considering […]
Archive | Analysis
RSS feed for this sectionMore on the “Obama Plunge”
The upset election of Scott Brown to the vacant Senate seat held by the late Teddy Kennedy seemed to be further confirmation of what we described in this post as the “Obama plunge.” This term referred to our belief that the percentage of the vote Barack Obama and/or Democratic Congressional candidates received in 2008 was […]
Aftermath of the 3/21 healthcare vote in the U.S. House
Previously in this post, we assessed the vulnerability of House Democrats by using the following criteria:
East Baton Rouge Parish School Board redistricting
Because Central has left the East Baton Rouge Parish school system to form its own school system, the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board was required to redraw its school board districts before the Fall 2010 elections. The School Board voted tonight to reduce the size of the School Board to 11 members (down from the current […]
The Effect of Term Limits on the 2011 Legislative Elections
Historically, the Democrats had strong majorities in both houses of the Louisiana Legislature. That began to change starting in 1995. At that time, the GOP tidal wave of 1994, which was part of a larger anti-Clinton tidal wave across the South, finally reached Louisiana. That tidal wave was further augmented by a FBI gambling probe […]
“Bayh Bayh” to the Senate Democratic majority ?
When we analyzed what we thought would happen with US House races this year, we looked at the Obama percentage in each district, the voting record of applicable House incumbents on controversial issues, and their 2008 re-election percentage. We deliberately did not perform the same analysis with the US Senate races this fall because: (1) […]
Aftershock of the “Massachusetts Miracle”
Last week, when we wrote on the “Obama plunge”in the wake of Republican Scott Brown’s upset victory in Massachusetts, we noted that a combination of 2008 Presidential election returns, 2008 House of Representative election results, and the voting record of House members on the “Big Three” of the stimulus, “cap and trade” and Obamacare could […]
Will voters “clean (Nancy Pelosi’s) House” this November ?
When we analyzed the Massachusetts election returns on January 19, we noted the presence of a phenomenon called the “Obama plunge”, which refers to the drop-off in Democratic support since the 2008 Presidential election in major statewide and/or Congressional elections. This drop-off is fueled by an energized conservative base and a significant plunge in Democratic […]
The Massachusetts Miracle – what happened ?
There will be many lengthy post mortems written about this election, so the historic victory of Scott Brown (the last time a Republican Senator in Massachusetts was victorious was in 1972) deserves some “behind the scenes” analysis.
Lessons Learned From the Tax Election
A final note on tax issues in East Baton Rouge Parish – by looking at a sample of parishwide tax votes since 2002, some patterns clearly emerge that any politician would be wise to note (the descriptions of the regions of East Baton Rouge Parish can be found here):