Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s June 26 Presidential scorecard

Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state (1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) […]

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JMC Analytics and Polling’s “A-B-Cs” of polling

In a political or issue campaign, substantial resources are spent on TV, direct mail, Internet advertising, social media, and the like to communicate its message to voters. But how can campaigns evaluate whether these communications were effective? That’s where polling comes in, and a properly constructed poll is the most effective (and objective) way to […]

Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s June 19 Presidential scorecard

Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state (1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) […]

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Decision 2016 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s June 12 Presidential scorecard

Introduction – how does JMC Analytics and Polling call a state? When analyzing the Presidential contest, the more data that is available, the better. Because with both partisan and non partisan sources alike releasing their polls, the truth is somewhere in the middle of all of their poll numbers. Real Clear Politics has been faithfully […]

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Decision 2016: The end of Presidential primary season

It’s official: both Hillary Clinton (on the Democratic side) and Donald Trump (on the Republican side) are the party nominees for President. However, last night’s results were a continuation of the narrative that has been in place for the last few weeks: Donald Trump has (despite recent gaffes) consolidated the support of Republican primary voters, while […]

Decision 2016: Has Donald Trump “spiked” Democratic voter registration ?

As the 2016 election cycle progresses, the prevalent narrative is that, as the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump has energized Democrats, as evidenced by a spike in voter registration. Is this narrative supported by the data? To evaluate this assertion, JMC Analytics and Polling examined changes in partisan voter registration since January 1, 2016. The methodology/assumptions used were as […]

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Decision 2016: Kentucky/Oregon primaries

At this point in the election cycle, the Republican contest has become an afterthought, as Republicans are slowly but surely coming around to Donald Trump, as evidenced by his showing in Oregon last night. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to be unable to “close the sale” with Democratic primary voters – Bernie Sanders came within 1,900 […]

Decision 2016: The “final three” compete in West Virginia and Nebraska

Last week, the Republican contest quickly came to a conclusion when Donald Trump’s overwhelming win in Indiana caused both Ted Cruz and John Kasich to exit the race within a day after balloting concluded. And despite vocal protests from various Republican officeholders and operatives, the election results show that Donald Trump has quickly consolidated the Republican […]

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Decision 2016: Trump/Clinton Louisiana statewide poll

JMC Analytics and Polling recently (and independently) polled the Presidential race in Louisiana. Despite widely publicized reports of Republican defections within and without the state, Louisiana voters in general (and Republicans specifically) are strongly behind Donald Trump, despite the fact that the poll also shows him with mediocre approval ratings (his approval ratings, however, were better […]

Decision 2016: Cruz collapse, and Sanders shocker in Indiana

(UPDATED 5/4 PM) The Presidential race has come to its conclusion on the Republican side, as Ted Cruz’s disappointing showing in Indiana (combined with seven wins in a row by Donald Trump with more than 50% of the vote) caused him (and, one day later, John Kasich) to exit the race fairly quickly after the polls closed. […]

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