Decision 2014: Forecasting the November 2014 midterm election results

Will the 2014 midterm elections be a Republican blowout year, a mildly Republican year, or a year where Democrats “break even”? That is the central question of this election cycle, and you will get substantially different answers, depending on which political observers you talk to. With less than four months to go the November elections, […]

Decision 2014: Mississippi US Senate GOP runoff postmortem

Background (UPDATED 6/25 AM) With all but two precincts in Hinds County reporting, Senator Thad Cochran has improbably come back from what was to be a near certain defeat. How did he do so? Quite simply, Senator Cochran expanded the primary electorate by getting Democrats to vote in the Republican runoff – runoff turnout was 18% […]

Decision 2014: Mississippi US Senate GOP Runoff (JMCEL’s election night guide)

Background For the past three election cycles (2010, 2012, and 2014), Republican primaries/runoffs have an element of drama to them, as an ongoing tug of war has developed between those allied with “the Establishment” and those who are more sympathetic to party activists and are more TEA Party friendly. This tension has produced varying levels […]

Demographic changes in East Baton Rouge Parish – A quarter century “look back”

The Baton Rouge area is one part of Louisiana that does not have a well-defined image: John Maginnis once noted that “it was formed and is still largely controlled by outside forces.” Even today, it is inhabited by a “gumbo” of different groups: a large black minority of all economic strata, a significant professional population, […]

Decision 2014 – Testing the TEA Party in North Carolina and Ohio

JMCEL’s Scorecard Obama job approval (5/7 Real Clear Politics average): 44-52% approve/disapprove (was 43-52% approve/disapprove); Generic Ballot (5/7 Real Clear Politics average): 44-43% Republican/Democrat (was 41-41% Democrat/Republican); “Obamacare” support (5/7 Real Clear Politics average): 41-52% support/oppose (was 39-54% support/oppose); Congressional filing has closed in 35 states that have 366 House and 26 Senate races; Upcoming […]

Decision 2014: Handicapping the US Senate races

BACKGROUND In general, midterm elections are a good barometer of what the public thinks of the party in power. What makes this midterm election interesting is that the US Senate is up for grabs – Democrats currently control that chamber 55-45. The Senate is in play for three reasons: (1) midterm elections typically tilt against […]

Louisiana Census Data as of July 1, 2013

In our last posting, we discussed population changes from the perspective of changes in voter registration counts for all 144 legislative districts. In this article, we would like to examine population changes from Census data. This past week, the US Census released interim population estimates showing population changes for all 50 states between April 2, 2010 […]

Demographic changes to Louisiana legislative districts, 2010-2014

Background The Louisiana Legislature consists of 105 representatives and 39 senators, all of whom are elected for four year terms. On average, each representative represents 43,000 people, while a senator (on average) represents 116,000 people. Even though the contours of these districts are redrawn only once a decade, the demographics of these 144 legislative districts […]

Decision 2014 (Florida upset, and unions in the Illinois Republican primary)

JMCEL’s Scorecard Obama job approval (3/20 Real Clear Politics average): 43-52% approve/disapprove (3/5 average 43-53%); Generic Ballot (3/20 Real Clear Politics average): 41-41% Democrat/Republican (3/5 average 42-42%); “Obamacare” support (3/20 Real Clear Politics average): 39-54% support/oppose (3/5 average 38-52%); Congressional filing has closed in 22 (or 10 more) states (California, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Montana, […]

Decision 2014 (Testing the TEA Party in Texas, and a March 6 snapshot)

JMCEL’s Scorecard Obama job approval (3/5 Real Clear Politics average): 43-53% approve/disapprove; Generic Ballot (3/5 Real Clear Politics average):: 42-42% Democrat/Republican; “Obamacare” support (3/5 Real Clear Politics average):: 38-52% support/oppose; Congressional filing has closed in 12 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia) that have 127 […]