Decision 2014 – DefendLA poll on Obama approval, Landrieu re-elect, and gun legislation

One of the more closely watched US Senate races in 2014 will undoubtedly be in Louisiana, where three term Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu will face Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy – she has never been elected or re-elected with more than 52% of the vote. DefendLA, which is a “statewide campaign dedicated to giving Louisianians a [...]

Decision 2012: What went wrong for the GOP ?

Introduction The election results of the 2012 Presidential election have been subject to many different interpretations, with each interpretation’s being dependent on the observer’s partisan bent. The current (dominant) narrative is that President Obama was re-elected on the basis of minority voters, and that the Republican Party is no longer competitive nationally, because it has [...]

Voter targeting – an analytical approach

A common mistake those running for office make is a lack of understanding of voter behavior, which results in their spending unnecessary effort reaching out to potential voters. This article will address both the nature of the problem and what can be done about it. Understanding voter data Every election cycle, political scientists bemoan the fact [...]

Louisiana voter registration trends, 2001-2013 (Part II – Voter registration by age)

In the first part of our analysis, we examined changes in Louisiana voter registration over the past decade. There is another layer to this analysis to get a complete picture, however – examining voter registration data by a voter’s age, since the political views of each generation are invariably shaped by the political context of [...]

Louisiana voter registration trends, 2001-2013

Last summer, we had examined Louisiana voter registration (and associated trends) over the previous decade, and in that analysis, we discovered the following: Increased GOP voter registration A continuous decline in the number of white Democrats A black majority among registered Democrats A GOP plurality among white voters  Since that August 2012 analysis, the Presidential [...]

Decision 2014 – GOP poll in West Virginia

Historically, West Virginia was a solidly Democratic state, with its rural and unionized industrial character. In fact, starting with the New Deal, the state only voted Republican in “landslide years” (1956, 1972, and 1984). Those voting habits changed in 2000, when Clinton administration policy regarding coal mining, as well as social/gun rights issues, enabled George [...]

Decision 2012: a picture is worth a thousand words (Part 4: Shreveport)

In the previous article, we graphically displayed the election results by precinct for Lafayette. This posting is devoted to Shreveport. Shreveport was an area of the state that for years voted Republican both in “top of the ballot” contests and in legislative races. In recent years, a combination of slow population growth, an increase in black [...]

Decision 2012: a picture is worth a thousand words (Part 3: Lafayette)

In the previous article, we graphically displayed the election results by precinct for New Orleans. This posting is devoted to Lafayette. With the predominance of the oil industry, Lafayette would seem to be one of those cities that would automatically support Republicans. While this is true at the Presidential level, Democrats were able to win [...]

Decision 2012: a picture is worth a thousand words (Part 2: New Orleans)

In the previous article, we graphically displayed the election results by precinct for Baton Rouge. This posting is devoted to New Orleans: namely, the “urban core” of Orleans, Jefferson, and Saint Bernard. The New Orleans area was one of the first parts of the state (other than Baton Rouge) to vote Republican in statewide and [...]