Decision 2018: Republicans dodge four bullets (so far)

The 2016 elections rearranged the electoral furniture (so to speak) at the Presidential level: Donald Trump posted numbers in blue collar and rural areas well above the norm for Republican candidates, while longtime Republican strongholds like the metropolitan areas of Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta (even locally, in affluent parts of East Baton Rouge and Jefferson […]

Decision 2017: (Special Election) House District 77 poll

House District 77 is located in western Saint Tammany Parish and includes Covington, Madisonville, and Folsom. This is a district whose political complexion and partisan representation were substantially changed by suburban growth over the last several decades (the district has grown an estimated 26% since 2010). The district map can be found here. Due to […]

Decision 2018: Reading the tea leaves/Another GOP close call

Has Donald Trump sparked a wave of Democratic enthusiasm that will extend into the 2018 midterms and beyond ? That is the question that political pundits have continuously been asking, their curiosity piqued by the consistently low approval ratings that have faced the President since his inauguration (according to RealClearPolitics, his current average disapproval rating […]

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Decision 2017: A near upset for Republicans in Georgia

It’s not often that Congressional special elections get the nation’s attention. The race that concluded last night in Georgia, however, was one of the occasional exceptions to that rule, as this race was believed to be an early test of Donald Trump’s/Republican popularity in “swing” areas. First, some background information: JMC Analytics and Polling has […]

Decision 2017: Why (a special Congressional election in) Kansas matters

As a data analyst, it is one of JMC’s beliefs that midterm/Presidential election results rarely occur in a vacuum: available data (such as changes in voter registration, partisan primary participation, the composition of the early vote, and special election results) can and does foretell what will happen before Election Day. In this instance, a Congressional […]

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2016 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting

Last week, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed the July 1, 2016 Census estimates by parish for Louisiana and briefly discussed the political impacts of population shifts since the 2010 Census. In this analysis, there will be a a practical application of those population shifts by demonstrating the impact on Louisiana’s six Congressional districts. As with […]

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2016 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish

While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Earlier today, July 1, 2016 population estimates were released for all of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? While Louisiana’s population growth […]

Decision 2017: Is a Congressional Democratic “rebirth” happening?

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump six weeks ago, the perception is that Democrats have become energized, and with this renewed energy, they will be swept back into power in both houses of Congress in next year’s midterm elections. Is this enthusiasm grounded in fact? From previous analyses, JMC has noted that before a November […]

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Was there a “Trump realignment” in the Deep South?

Historically, political party affiliation was a function of one’s income (i.e., the wealthier one was, the more likely that he/she was Republican). Even when Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, the affluent voter populations in more urbanized areas of the state could be counted to vote Republican both at the top of the ticket and […]

Decision 2016: Did the pollsters get it right (or wrong)?

Now that the 2016 Presidential election cycle has concluded, there has been considerable discussion about whether pollsters as a whole “missed the boat” on predicting the Presidential race. Did they ? To evaluate, there are two aspects of the 2016 Presidential polls that JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed: (1) how well the polls predicted the […]

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