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Polling 101

In a political campaign, significant resources are spent on TV, direct mail, Internet, social media, and the like to communicate with voters. But how do campaigns know if these communications have been effective? The most effective (and objective) way to measure this is through periodic polling, which has the additional benefit of determining whether additional […]

Decision 2014 – JMCEL scorecard as of August 31

Primary season is coming to a close – 44 states have now decided their party’s nominees for federal and statewide offices. Since Labor Day traditionally is the time that voters begin to pay attention to political campaigns, this is a good time to revise the scorecard.

Decision 2014 – JMCEL scorecard as of August 16

Right now, 39 states have decided their party’s nominees for federal and statewide offices (Oklahoma’s runoff is on August 26, and there are three more primary dates before the November elections). Given that many of these November races are already underway, this is a good time to bring back the scorecard as a way of objectively assessing […]

Decision 2014: Louisiana Senate Poll/”Polling 101″

Earlier today, Public Policy Polling (also known as PPP) released a poll in the Louisiana Senate race that showed three term incumbent Mary Landrieu clinging to a one point lead over Representative Bill Cassidy (R-Baton Rouge). In its write up, PPP noted that this one point lead was a significant tightening of the race since […]

Decision 2013 – 5th Congressional District Poll

The 5th Congressional District is located in Northeast Louisiana, although after reapportionment, additional territory in the Florida Parishes and in St Landry Parish was added. This is a Republican leaning district with a noticeable Democratic base, due to the 33% black voter registration. Mitt Romney carried this district 61-38%, while in the 2008 Senate race, […]

Decision 2014 – DefendLA poll on Obama approval, Landrieu re-elect, and gun legislation

One of the more closely watched US Senate races in 2014 will undoubtedly be in Louisiana, where three term Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu will face Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy – she has never been elected or re-elected with more than 52% of the vote.

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Decision 2014 – GOP poll in West Virginia

Historically, West Virginia was a solidly Democratic state, with its rural and unionized industrial character. In fact, starting with the New Deal, the state only voted Republican in “landslide years” (1956, 1972, and 1984). Those voting habits changed in 2000, when Clinton administration policy regarding coal mining, as well as social/gun rights issues, enabled George […]

Decision 2012 – Louisiana Supreme Court Poll

District 5 of the Louisiana Supreme Court is essentially the Baton Rouge, Louisiana media market (i.e., Baton Rouge, its suburbs, and surrounding parishes). This is an area that because of its white collar job base and innate conservatism can be counted on to vote Republican. However, there is also a formidable Democratic base comprising three […]