While the state of Ohio nearly always goes with the winning Presidential candidate, the 12th Congressional District (which is located in the middle of the state and consists of areas north and east of Columbus) is a Republican district. Its Republicanism, however, is more white collar in nature, and would by today’s standards be considered “moderate.” In fact, while the rest of Ohio shifted 11 points to Donald Trump in the 2016 Presidential election, the 12th Congressional District barely budged, giving a similar margin to Donald Trump that it did to Mitt Romney in 2012.

Its former Congressman (Pat Tiberi) resigned to take a job with the Ohio Business Council, and an August 7 special election has been called to fill his vacant seat. JMC recently polled the race, and the poll can be viewed here. There are three main takeaways from this poll: (1) Democrats are doing well at the top of the ticket, (2) Republican Troy Balderson is in a strong position to hold the district for his party in August, and (3) President Trump’s approval rating seems to have been helped by the perception that the North Korea summit was a success