In the previous analysis, it was determined that in general, the parishes included in the federal disaster declaration were not affected (from a population growth standpoint) by the flooding of last August. East Baton Rouge Parish, however, did not see any growth in its voter population since the flood, which would suggest that this parish […]
Decision 2017: (Special Election) Alabama U.S. Senate poll – Republican primary
For two decades, Jeff Sessions has represented Alabama in the United Senate Senate (interestingly, despite his long tenure, he is the state’s junior senator – his colleague Richard Shelby was elected in 1986). Earlier this year, President Donald Trump chose Sessions to be Attorney General, and a special election is being called to fill his […]
Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood, a year later (Part I: statewide impact)
Nearly a year ago, massive flooding occurred through most of South Louisiana, and JMC in October 2016 and January 2017 analyzed voter registration changes to assess whether this flood was a “Katrina event” (i.e., the scope of devastation sparked a massive resettlement into other parts of the state and/or to other states). In each analysis, it was […]
Decision 2017: (Special Election) Treasurer’s race poll
For nearly two decades, John Kennedy (originally elected in 1999 as a Democrat, and almost a decade later he switched to the Republican Party) has served as Louisiana’s State Treasurer. He was recently (in the December 2016 runoff) elected to the U.S. Senate, and a special election is being called in October to fill this […]
Louisiana voter registration trends, 2001-(July) 2017
JMC Analytics and Polling periodically analyzes voter registration data that is updated on a monthly basis by the Secretary of State as a means of staying abreast of demographic/population trends in Louisiana. The most recent (i.e., July 1) statistical report was published several days ago, and here’s what the data shows: Current statewide voter registration […]
Decision 2018: Republicans dodge four bullets (so far)
The 2016 elections rearranged the electoral furniture (so to speak) at the Presidential level: Donald Trump posted numbers in blue collar and rural areas well above the norm for Republican candidates, while longtime Republican strongholds like the metropolitan areas of Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta (even locally, in affluent parts of East Baton Rouge and Jefferson […]
Decision 2017: (Special Election) House District 77 poll
House District 77 is located in western Saint Tammany Parish and includes Covington, Madisonville, and Folsom. This is a district whose political complexion and partisan representation were substantially changed by suburban growth over the last several decades (the district has grown an estimated 26% since 2010). The district map can be found here. Due to […]
Decision 2018: Reading the tea leaves/Another GOP close call
Has Donald Trump sparked a wave of Democratic enthusiasm that will extend into the 2018 midterms and beyond ? That is the question that political pundits have continuously been asking, their curiosity piqued by the consistently low approval ratings that have faced the President since his inauguration (according to RealClearPolitics, his current average disapproval rating […]
Decision 2017: A near upset for Republicans in Georgia
It’s not often that Congressional special elections get the nation’s attention. The race that concluded last night in Georgia, however, was one of the occasional exceptions to that rule, as this race was believed to be an early test of Donald Trump’s/Republican popularity in “swing” areas. First, some background information: JMC Analytics and Polling has […]
Decision 2017: Why (a special Congressional election in) Kansas matters
As a data analyst, it is one of JMC’s beliefs that midterm/Presidential election results rarely occur in a vacuum: available data (such as changes in voter registration, partisan primary participation, the composition of the early vote, and special election results) can and does foretell what will happen before Election Day. In this instance, a Congressional […]