Decision 2017: (Special Election) House District 77 Runoff Poll #1

House District 77 is located in western Saint Tammany Parish and includes Covington, Madisonville, and Folsom. This is a district whose political complexion and partisan representation were substantially changed by suburban growth over the last several decades (the district has grown an estimated 26% since 2010). The district map can be found here.

Due to the suburban growth, this is a heavily Republican district that typically gives Republican candidates at least 3:1 support. Donald Trump carried the district 76-19%, while Senator (and Madisonville resident) John Kennedy carried the district 83-17%. And in the October 14 primary for State Treasurer, not only did Republican John Schroder (who represented the district from 2008 until his June 2017 resignation) get 61% of the vote, but 86% of House District 77 voters supported one of the Republican candidates.

Also on the October 14 ballot was a special state House election to succeed Schroder. Two Republicans (Rob Maness and Mark Wright) made the runoff, with 37% favoring Maness, 25% favoring Wright, 21% supporting Independent (and former Democrat) Lisa Condrey Ward, and 18% supporting Republican Casey Revere.

JMC was engaged to poll this race for the runoff, and there are three main takeaways: (1) Colonel Maness maintains a healthy lead as he has had throughout the race, (2) this lead is despite the endorsements Mark Wright received from the two candidates (Condrey Ward and Revere) who did not make the runoff, and (3) among the base voters (Republicans and chronic voters) needed to win this race, Maness has a healthy lead. The poll results can be viewed here.