Four more states (Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Idaho, and Oregon) held their primaries last night. And in each case, there was evidence of either increased Democratic or reduced Republican enthusiasm relative to previous midterm elections. Although if we’re using these turnout figures to predict midterm election results on a state by state basis, the “Hillary Clinton test” […]
Decision 2018: Dawn of a “Republican spring”?
Throughout both the lead-up to primary season and the first two primaries (Illinois and Texas), the author has seen numerous signs pointing to an unusually energized Democratic electorate. Last night’s primary results, however, were not so one sided against the Republicans. In fact, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can take some satisfaction in the caliber […]
2017 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting
Earlier today, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed the July 1, 2017 Census estimates by parish for Louisiana and briefly discussed the political impacts of population shifts since the 2010 Census. This analysis will focus on a practical application of those revised population estimates: the impact on each of Louisiana’s six Congressional districts. As with any redistricting […]
2017 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish
While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Earlier today, July 1, 2017 population estimates were released for each of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? For decades, Louisiana’s rate […]
Decision 2018: A “distant early warning” from Illinois
Two weeks ago, Texas was the first state to hold its primary for the 2018 midterm elections. Last night, Illinois held its primary. And just like Texas, the Illinois results are pointing towards a much higher degree of Democratic enthusiasm than was present for the primaries for the 2010 or 2014 midterm elections – enthusiasm […]
Decision 2018: “John Bel” Lamb wins in Pennsylvania
Context The 2016 Presidential election was a realignment election just like previous Presidential elections in 2008, 1992, and 1980 were. In 2016, Donald Trump rewrote the rules of victory that had been in place between 1992 to 2012 by making substantial gains in ancestrally Democratic rural and/or blue-collar areas. As he was adding those voters […]
Decision 2018: (Special Election) Jefferson Parish Sheriff/ Constable Poll
The late John Maginnis once noted in The Last Hayride that “there was a time in this state when only two political offices really counted: governor and sheriff. Just about everyone else derived power from them or stayed out of the way.” Accordingly, the sheriff of Jefferson Parish (the second largest parish in Louisiana, according […]
Decision 2018: Reading the Texas Tea Leaves
Primary season for the 2018 midterms has begun with the conclusion of last night’s Texas primary. While these were party primaries (as opposed to general elections), there are aspects to the primary results (from a turnout perspective) that both Democrats and Republicans can spin in their favor. Is a Democratic wave forming? Throughout early voting, […]
Decision 2018: Nebraska statewide poll
In national elections, there is hardly a more Republican-friendly state than Nebraska (which hasn’t voted Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide). In statewide elections, it usually (but not always) votes for Republicans. In this poll, JMC tested the re-elect/job favorability numbers for Governor Pete Ricketts and Senator Deb Fischer (who won their last campaigns with […]
Decision 2018: Mississippi U.S. Senate poll – Republican primary
The 1994 midterm election was part of not just a Republican landslide, but arguably was the initiating event of a political realignment in the rural Deep South that swept in many Republicans who before would not have been politically viable. Roger Wicker was one of those GOP House freshmen, and he then (by appointment) ascended […]