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The effect of the “Obama plunge” on House elections

The big unanswered question of the 2010 elections is: will the Republicans recapture the House, the Senate, or both ? Currently, the House is controlled by the Democrats 256-179, while the Senate is controlled by the Democrats by a 59-41 margin. Since most of the information about this subject on either side of the political spectrum […]

Early analysis of the Louisiana Lieutenant Governor’s Race

The conventional wisdom is that Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is a shoo in for the Lt Governor’s race. We would like to test that assumption by examining the strengths/weaknesses of the major candidates running in this race and projecting their vote totals on a parish by parish basis to predict the overall primary results.

The “Obama Plunge” – what is it ?

In several major elections held since “cap and trade” passed the U.S. House last summer, we have noted a considerable dropoff in Democratic support relative to the levels of support Barack Obama received in his 2008 Presidential race. We believe this dropoff (aka, the “Obama plunge”) can be used to evaluate the electoral prospects of Democratic congressional candidates […]

The U.S. House “deems” the 2011 budget as passed

Part One: Vote to raise the national debt ceiling Elections (past, present, and future) have consequences. Back in February, we noted that the upset victory of Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts sent a psychological shock wave to some Democrats who were beginning to get “cold feet” politically after tough votes on legislation like the stimulus, […]

(Trivial) midterm election statistics

41 – states whose Congressional filing deadlines have passed (the last filing deadline is Delaware’s, on July 30) 26 – states who have held primaries so far (the last Congressional primary is Hawaii’s, on September 18) 52 – Congressional retirements so far (23 Democrats, 29 Republicans – the recent record was set in 1992, with 70 retirements) 5 […]