JMCEL’s Scorecard Obama job approval (3/20 Real Clear Politics average): 43-52% approve/disapprove (3/5 average 43-53%); Generic Ballot (3/20 Real Clear Politics average): 41-41% Democrat/Republican (3/5 average 42-42%); “Obamacare” support (3/20 Real Clear Politics average): 39-54% support/oppose (3/5 average 38-52%); Congressional filing has closed in 22 (or 10 more) states (California, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Montana, […]
Archive | 2014 Election
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2014 (Testing the TEA Party in Texas, and a March 6 snapshot)
JMCEL’s Scorecard Obama job approval (3/5 Real Clear Politics average): 43-53% approve/disapprove; Generic Ballot (3/5 Real Clear Politics average):: 42-42% Democrat/Republican; “Obamacare” support (3/5 Real Clear Politics average):: 38-52% support/oppose; Congressional filing has closed in 12 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia) that have 127 […]
Decision 2014: Louisiana Senate Poll/”Polling 101″
Earlier today, Public Policy Polling (also known as PPP) released a poll in the Louisiana Senate race that showed three term incumbent Mary Landrieu clinging to a one point lead over Representative Bill Cassidy (R-Baton Rouge). In its write up, PPP noted that this one point lead was a significant tightening of the race since […]
Decision 2014 (a February 6 snapshot)
JMCEL’s Scorecard Congressional filing has closed in six states (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia) that have 88 House and four Senate races; (UPDATED 2/11 AM) Upcoming filing deadlines: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania; Unopposed House members: 10 Democrats and 8 Republicans (out of 88 districts) House […]
Decision 2014: a “New” New Orleans ?
Introduction For about 30 years, citywide elections in New Orleans had an air of predictability to them after its last white mayor, “Moon” Landrieu, left the office in 1977: the city’s (then) growing black population and voting majority split along racial lines, and the support of black voter groups (known as the “alphabet soup” organizations) […]
Upset in the 5th congressional district – what happened ?
There was a congressional runoff tonight in the 5th Congressional district in northeast Louisiana/the Florida Parishes, and in a two Republican race, businessman Vance McAllister was elected in a 60-40% landslide. In analyzing this race, the following three points need to be made:
Decision 2013: “Post Game” analysis
Now that most of the national races have been settled, what are the takeaways? There are four: The political fault lines that have set the “ground rules” for partisan candidates across the country have remained intact, Candidate quality is crucial, The existing fault lines can be breached (even in Democratic areas) if issues important to […]
Decision 2013: November 5 “Pregame”
Looking back In a sense, the political world has been frozen in time since the 2008 election, when Barack Obama was elected by a percentage (53%) that a Democrat has not received since the 1964 Democratic landslide. And the political battle lines changed very little in the 2012 presidential election, when President Obama was re-elected […]
Decision 2013 – 5th Congressional District Poll
The 5th Congressional District is located in Northeast Louisiana, although after reapportionment, additional territory in the Florida Parishes and in St Landry Parish was added. This is a Republican leaning district with a noticeable Democratic base, due to the 33% black voter registration. Mitt Romney carried this district 61-38%, while in the 2008 Senate race, […]
Decision 2014: “Pregame” (Part 2: the 2014 midterm elections)
Election season will soon be upon us. In our previous analysis, we had noted that the genesis for the 2014 midterm elections is already underway, with upcoming elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and Colorado. In this analysis, we would like to discuss the 2014 election. This election really has to be thought of through the […]