For tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday, candidates will be qualifying for national, statewide, and local races in Louisiana. What may be confusing is that while we will return to open primaries for Congressional races, we are still using party primaries for this year’s Congressional elections only. Meaning that Democrats/Independents may vote in the August 28 Democratic […]
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The “Obama Plunge” – what is it ?
In several major elections held since “cap and trade” passed the U.S. House last summer, we have noted a considerable dropoff in Democratic support relative to the levels of support Barack Obama received in his 2008 Presidential race. We believe this dropoff (aka, the “Obama plunge”) can be used to evaluate the electoral prospects of Democratic congressional candidates […]
The U.S. House “deems” the 2011 budget as passed
Part One: Vote to raise the national debt ceiling Elections (past, present, and future) have consequences. Back in February, we noted that the upset victory of Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts sent a psychological shock wave to some Democrats who were beginning to get “cold feet” politically after tough votes on legislation like the stimulus, […]
2010 Elections, 7/2 edition
Primary and Filing Status We are now in an “eye of the storm”, so to speak, of the 2010 election cycle. As this article is being written, 26 states have held their primaries, and Congressional filing just concluded in 42 states (Rhode Island’s filing concluded on June 30). Next week, Congressional filing will conclude […]
(Trivial) midterm election statistics
41 – states whose Congressional filing deadlines have passed (the last filing deadline is Delaware’s, on July 30) 26 – states who have held primaries so far (the last Congressional primary is Hawaii’s, on September 18) 52 – Congressional retirements so far (23 Democrats, 29 Republicans – the recent record was set in 1992, with 70 retirements) 5 […]
2010 Elections, June 22 edition (South Carolina makes history)
Utah Primary, North Carolina/South Carolina Runoffs Tonight, history was made in South Carolina. For the GOP runoff for Governor, state representative Nikki Haley (who is of Indian descent) benefitted in the primary from a backlash against racial slurs used against her (she was referred to as a “rag head”), as well as unproven allegations that she was […]
Midterm Elections Halftime Report/June 22 primary preview
As of today, 25 states have held primaries, and Congressional filing has concluded in 41 states. There will be some more interesting races this upcoming Tuesday, when North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah hold elections. We are particularly interested in South Carolina and Utah.
Can the GOP retake Nancy’s House (Version 2.0) ?
In a previous posting, we used the following criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not:
Louisiana Senate Race Poll
Recently, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies polled 1030 likely voters between June 10-13. The poll showed a healthy 51-31% lead for David Vitter. A few notes about the internals:
Can the GOP retake Nancy’s House ?
Criteria used to estimate GOP House seat gains Over the past few months, we have continually been refining our criteria to determine whether we think a Democratic held House seat is vulnerable or not. At the present time, we have projected a 76 seat House gain for the GOP based on the following criteria: