What a difference an election cycle makes. After the 2006 New Orleans Mayor’s race, it was thought that a white candidate (even a Landrieu, whose patriarch was the last white mayor) had no future in a citywide election. Last night’s election provided some surprises, but there are also some things that need to be noted.
In our Monday post, we noted that 16,582 had early voted. However, mail in ballots are still coming in (deadline is tomorrow). And in this case, 491 have early voted since Monday.
When we analyzed the Massachusetts election returns on January 19, we noted the presence of a phenomenon called the “Obama plunge”, which refers to the drop-off in Democratic support since the 2008 Presidential election in major statewide and/or Congressional elections. This drop-off is fueled by an energized conservative base and a significant plunge in Democratic […]
Previously, we noted the strong early voting in the New Orleans mayor’s race. This trend continued into the last day of early voting Saturday. The cumulative early vote total is now 16,582, of whom 68% are black and 29% are white (the racial split of the New Orleans voter rolls is 62/31% as of 1/4/2010). To put this number […]
The City of New Orleans is having a Mayor’s race with a February 6 primary and a March 6 runoff, if necessary.
There will be many lengthy post mortems written about this election, so the historic victory of Scott Brown (the last time a Republican Senator in Massachusetts was victorious was in 1972) deserves some “behind the scenes” analysis.
As voters go to the polls tomorrow in Masachusetts, we are on the cusp of a major election upset by Republican Scott Brown. To illustrate how rapidly the ground has shifted on this campaign, let’s look back at the “rolling averages” of polls taken in the last few days:
Today, a poll was released from American Research Group (ARG), which polled 600 likely voters between Tuesday-Thursday, and this poll showed a 48-45% Scott Brown lead. Couple of things worth noting:
With four days days until the election, two new polls have come out, and not only do both show Scott Brown in the lead, but both show him with at least 50% of the vote. The polls released today showed the following:
With five days until the election, a Democratic poll of 500 likely voters by Blue Mass Group/Research 2000 shows a 49-41% Martha Coakley lead. A couple of comments here: