Tonight, two states (Washington and Wyoming) held their primaries. In Wyoming, the only race of note was a crowded Republican primary for Governor, which was a proxy battle between the establishment (former President George H.W. Bush endorsed former state House speaker Collin Simpson, the son of a former senator) and the insurgents (Sarah Palin endorsed […]
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It’s (Congressional) Election Season in Louisiana !
Election season in Louisiana is upon us now. Early voting for the Congressional primaries started yesterday and will continue until Saturday, August 21. From examining early voting statistics provided to us by the Secretary of State, there are several things we noticed:
The effect of the “Obama plunge” on House elections
The big unanswered question of the 2010 elections is: will the Republicans recapture the House, the Senate, or both ? Currently, the House is controlled by the Democrats 256-179, while the Senate is controlled by the Democrats by a 59-41 margin. Since most of the information about this subject on either side of the political spectrum […]
2010 Elections, 8/12 edition – House/Senate/Governors polls
2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded in mid September) using the following criteria:
2010 elections, 8/11 edition (President Obama finally wins one)
There are two ways of looking at last night’s results. There is the point of view already being trumpeted by the Washington establishment that “Primary night yields good news for Obama, Dems.” There is, however, still the reality that in the 22 states where both parties had contested primaries, 54% of primary voters have chosen a Republican ballot. […]
2010 Elections, 8/5 version
2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded in mid September) using the following criteria:
2010 elections, 8/4 version (three primaries, two close calls, and another House incumbent loses)
After a relatively quiet month, the gauntlet of primaries has returned. For the next six weeks, there remaining 22 primaries will be held, with primaries nearly every week (Louisiana holds its Congressional primaries on August 28 and its “regular” primary on October 2). Tonight, Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri held its primaries.
Poll analysis for dummies
One of the features of any election cycle are the numerous polls conducted. These polls paint a narrative about how well a candidate or party is performing at a point in time or over time. And despite the fact that we love to complain about the undue influence of polls, it’s the “horse race” aspect […]
2010 Elections, 7/29 version
2010 Election Predictions – How we rank individual races Our calls on individual races are based on a composite of polls conducted over the last 28 days (we will compress this “look back period” once primary season has concluded) using the following criteria:
Electoral landslides for dummies
As this article is being written, Election Day is 14 weeks away. The predominant chatter among political pundits is not whether there will be Republican gains, but the extent of those gains, and whether those gains can produce a Republican wave large enough to enable them to retake the House, the Senate, or both houses of Congress […]