Thought #1: Putting this year’s turnover in perspective
Author: john
If there is one predominant theme from “Super Super Tuesday”, it’s that while incumbents are down, they’re certainly not out.
This upcoming Tuesday will be one of two “Super Super Tuesdays” between now and the November elections (the other will be on September 14). Ten states will be holding primaries, while Georgia is holding an all Republican Congressional special election, and Arkansas is holding runoff elections. Below are the major races we will be watching Tuesday night:
Scorecard –
Tonight, special election runoffs were held in two state House districts in Baton Rouge and one in New Orleans. In both of these all Democratic runoffs, the more moderate/less controversial candidate won.
Scorecard
We have been discussing the Hawaii special election for some time as a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. Republican Charles Djou (who served on the Honolulu City Council) has won with 40% of the vote. Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who was endorsed by the Hawaii Democratic organization, finished second with 31% of the vote, while Washington Democrat (and newspaper) endorsed Ed Case finished third with 28%. A few things need to be mentioned about this GOP victory/Congressional race:
Today was a bad day to be an incumbent or an “establishment” candidate. The bad news started yesterday, when the New York Times revealed that Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) fabricated his Vietman experience in speeches with voters (in fact, he received multiple deferments). Suddenly an open seat race thought to be safe for the Democrats seemed to be more competitive, although it’s worth noting that polling taken before the misstatements were revealed showed Blumenthal’s numbers had declined to 52%. After the bombshell, Blumenthal’s poll leads tightened further: against three possible GOP opponents, his poll numbers ranged from 48-45% to 53-37%.
Tomorrow is primary day in Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Three of the states have significant intraparty primaries that feature an establishment candidate facing an insurgent candidate, and the outcomes of these races will be a good test of the depth of anti-incumbent sentiment: