Author: john

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Louisiana

Decision 2019: Louisiana Governor’s Race Poll (October 7 edition)

Louisiana is a Southern state that remained faithful to the Democratic Party longer than any other state in the region except possibly Arkansas. However, there has been an unmistakable and steady movement over the last decade to the Republicans, to the point that now there are Republican majorities nearly across the board (in other words, Republican majorities in both houses of the Legislature, nearly all statewide offices are held by Republicans, the Supreme Court, Public Service Commission, and the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education). Even in the 2018 Democratic landslide, Louisiana remained staunchly Republican: the partisan vote in Congressional races (all six districts were contested) was 57-38% Republican.

There is a notable exception to the increasing Republican dominance: Democrats recaptured the Governorship in 2015 due to a combination of two things: (1) Republican infighting in the primary prevented any kind of coalescing of the Republican vote in the runoff, and (2) a well run campaign from Democrat John Bel Edwards that proactively inoculated itself against attempts to portray him as a liberal by noting his conservative stances on abortion and gun rights, and by emphasizing his military background.

Now that Governor Edwards is running for re-election against two major Republican candidates (Congressman Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone), will partisan voting patterns reassert themselves and doom his re-election, or does he still have some affirmative strength despite going through numerous legislative special sessions to get a budget passed ?

This the second poll where the Louisiana Association of Health Plans (LAHP) engaged JMC to poll the Louisiana Governor’s race, and these are the takeaways from the poll (which can be found here):

  1. Partisans are coming home, which benefits both Governor Edwards (among blacks), and the the two major Republican candidates (among Republican voters);
  2. Governor Edwards continues to hold his own electorally among white Democrats while picking up support among white Independents;
  3. The race hasn’t changed much since the last LAHP commissioned poll (which can be found here):
  4. Governor Edwards/the Democrats need to be concerned about the weak Democratic turnout among early voters.
Categories
2019 Election Analysis Demographics Louisiana

Decision 2019 – Conclusion of in person early voting in Louisiana

In person early voting concluded last night (mail in absentees can still be accepted up to the day before Election Day), and it broke some records. What did early voting this year tell us?

Strong turnout

As of last night, 374,190 Louisianians either early voted by person or by mail in ballot (340,480 in person, and 33,710 mail in ballots). To put this number in perspective, this is the highest early voting turnout EVER for a non-Presidential election, and is the second highest early voting turnout EVER (only the 2016 Presidential election has seen a higher in person + absentee voting turnout with 531,555 early votes).

What is especially impressive about this 374K figure is that Democrats are only seriously contesting the Governor’s race (they have an incumbent to protect), while no top tier candidates emerged in any of the other statewide races.

Why has turnout been so high ? Given that the 374K is 59% higher than the 235K who early voted in the 2015 statewide election cycle, JMC believes that external factors are present. Last year, reports of strong early voting across the country (and, to some extent, energized conservatives after the Kavanaugh hearings) created a 315K turnout in an otherwise sleepy election cycle here. This time, the thought is that Democrats’ actions towards impeaching President Trump (in a state where he still remains fairly popular) have energized conservative voters: compared to 2015, Republican turnout volume is up 84%, while Independent turnout is up 80% and Democratic turnout is up 36%.

Democrats’ strong finish

Whatever the turnout levels are from election cycle to election cycle, there is one constant when it comes to early voting in Louisiana: blacks/Democrats tend to show up in greater numbers on the last day. So despite the fact that for the six days in a row the early voting electorate was 24% black, it surged to 32% black yesterday (blacks represent 31% of Louisiana’s registered voters). Similarly, in the 2015 primary, the electorate for the first six days was 26% black, then jumped to 32% black on the last day.

Still, despite the Democratic last day surge, the early voting electorate is 2% less black (27% in 2015 vs 25% last night) than it was four years ago. And Republicans from a percentage standpoint represent 5% more of the electorate (41% vs 36% in 2015). These numbers matter very much when Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards seeks to win re-election on October 12 without a runoff.

The top three early voting parishes were East Baton Rouge (41,297 early/absentee votes), St. Tammany (25,389), and Orleans (24,631).

JMC’s projections of early voting volume, overall turnout

Projecting turnout is a constantly moving target throughout early voting week, but since early voting has been in existence in Louisiana for over a decade, JMC has established (and continuously refined) benchmarks that can be used to project early voting and/or final turnout, even considering that this predictive model got slightly more complex starting in 2017 with mail in ballots’ starting to be automatically being mailed out to those 65 years old or over who opted to be on this list.

Given the above, as well as the fact that early voting shattered numerical records this election cycle, there are three “parallel universes” to JMC’s turnout projections (which consider the fact that an estimated 6-15K absentee ballots have yet to be mailed in and tallied before the Friday deadline), with one of those three being the likely outcome.

Parallel universe #1: In the 2015 primary, 21% of the total vote was cast before election day. If we want to assume that the higher early voting turnout is indicative only of a surge in Election Day turnout, a 21% early vote equates to a 61% voter turnout, or a total vote of 1.81 million. Because this is a Presidential level of turnout (Louisiana’s Presidential turnout in the last three Presidential elections was 68%, 68%, and 67%). JMC does not see this as a realistic scenario at all.

Parallel universe #2: If instead we want to assume that the higher early voting turnout is solely indicative of “front loading” of the total vote with no increase in numerical turnout relative to 2015, an estimated 380K early vote represents an early vote that is 33% of the total primary vote. Since the highest early voting percentage ever was in the 2016 Presidential election (26% of the vote was cast early), JMC does not believe it’s realistic to assume that early voting has become THAT much more popular since the 2015 election cycle. Again, not a realistic scenario at all.   

Parallel universe #3: More realistically, there will likely be a combination of higher turnout and some increased interest in early voting. In other words, an early vote representing 27% of the total vote (27% being halfway between 21 and 33%), which calculates to a total turnout of 48%, or 1.41 million voters). There is some precedent for this: in last year’s midterm, turnout surged to 51%, despite the absence of “high wattage” races at the statewide or Congressional level.

In Conclusion

Why does early voting matter? When the Legislature essentially established “no fault” early voting more than a decade ago, you now have a noticeable constituency of people who prefer the convenience of early voting, and this constituency has for eight times in a row (the 2015 primary, 2015 runoff, 2016 Presidential elections, December 2016 runoff, October 2017 primary, November 2017 runoff, November 2018 primary, and December 2018 runoff) exceeded 20%. A politician would be foolish to ignore this many “up front” voters, especially in a closely contested race. Also, too, early voting numbers are the first ones that are typically reported after polls have closed at 8 PM.

Categories
2019 Election Analysis Baton Rouge Demographics Louisiana Polling

Decision 2019–Day 1 of Louisiana Early Voting – Thanks,Coach O!

In person early voting is now underway for the 2019 statewide elections in Louisiana and will continue until next Saturday, October 5 (after which, mail in absentee ballots will be accepted for another week). What did yesterday’s early vote tell us ?

Near record early voting turnout, but……

Twice in recent election cycles, examining the first day early voting numbers has been a real eye opener: (1) the 2016 Presidential election (where an record 531,555 ultimately early voted), and (2) the 2018 “low wattage” (for Louisiana) midterm elections (315,773 ultimately early voted). As of last night, 77,059 voted early – the second highest first day early voting turnout EVER (the record so far was an 87,066 first day early voting turnout for President in 2016). Furthermore, this number is more than double the 37,611 who early voted on the first day in the 2015 statewide elections.

Louisianians are gradually becoming more comfortable with the idea of voting before Election Day: the first Presidential election where early voting was available was in 2008, and at that time, 15%/292,213 early voted – a record at that time. That record was topped again in 2012 (18%/355,676 early voted), and in 2016 (26%/531,555 early voted). And since the 2015 statewide primary, the “new normal” has consistently been above 20% voting early – an average of 23% have early voted in statewide elections between October 2015 and December 2018.

So with turnout more than double the 2015 numbers, is this a harbinger of high October 12 turnout reminiscent of the (Edwin) Edwards/Duke (1991) and Edwards/Treen (1983) races ? In JMC’s opinion, the answer is an almost unequivocal “no” for the following two reasons:

  • In 2017, the Secretary of State for the first time began to send out absentee/mail in ballots automatically to those 65 years old or over. Given that some people vote their mail in ballot when they receive it before in person early voting even starts, those cumulative mail in ballot numbers “spike” the first day early voting numbers. To illustrate, in the 2016, 26% of the first day balloting consisted of mail in ballots, while it was 22% in the 2015 statewide primary election. Starting in the 2017 statewide primary, mail as a proportion of the total first day vote spiked to 62%, and was 42% in the 2018 primary – it was, however, a more normal 27% last night;
  • A second reason (which in JMC’s opinion is the more salient reason) for the early voting turnout spike is one that is part and parcel of Louisiana culture: LSU is having a home football game against the University of Florida on October 12 (the day of the primary), and because of the potential for this game to be in the afternoon, that scheduling has the likelihood to wreak havoc on Election Day turnout, given the limited time to vote either before or after the game. This reality was obviously successfully communicated to voters: in person voting (i.e., excluding mail in ballots from consideration) jumped from 29,419 in 2015 to 56,545 yesterday. So while total early voting turnout was 105% higher than it was in 2015, the spike was even more pronounced in the Baton Rouge area (which would be the epicenter of turnout disruptions): turnout in East Baton Rouge and the surrounding parishes was up 179% (and an even higher 244% in East Baton Rouge and 226% in Ascension Parish), while in the remaining 55 parishes, first day early voting turnout was up 92%. So in a sense, LSU football has done what party operatives have repeatedly tried to do with varying levels of success: create a turnout surge.

Lagging Democratic enthusiasm

An ongoing (and elastic) variable when assessing the impact of early voting on the composition of the primary/runoff electorate is the racial and partisan composition of the electorate, since Louisiana has party registration and tracks a person’s race on his/her voter registration card. In the 2015 primary, first day early voting was 37,611, with a racial composition of 69-29% white/black and 52-34% Democrat/Republican. As of last night, the 77,059 who early voted were 72-25% white/black and 44-42% Democrat/Republican. In other words, an electorate that is 4-8% more conservative than in 2015. This diluted Democratic voting strength matters very much when Governor Edwards is seeking to win without a runoff on October 12. To illustrate how important, had the recently released poll numbers from JMC (seen here) used the racial/party composition of the first day early voting numbers, an Edwards lead of 48-22-20% over Rispone and Abraham would become 45-24-22% Edwards/Rispone/Abraham.

It will be interesting to see whether more Democrats early vote throughout the week after a weak start; in JMC’s experience, Democratic early voting tends to be heavier on Saturdays than on weekdays.

JMC’s projections of early voting volume, overall turnout

Projecting turnout is a constantly moving target throughout early voting week, but since early voting has been in existence in Louisiana for more than a decade, JMC has established (and continuously refined) benchmarks that can be used to project early voting and/or final turnout, even considering that his predictive model got slightly more complex in 2017 with mail in ballots’ starting to be automatically being mailed out to those 65 years old or over

Therefore (particularly considering the “spike” in mail in ballots that artificially inflated the numbers a bit), JMC is of the initial opinion that there will be more “front loading” in the early vote relative to October 12 turnout, and that it’s entirely possible that the previous record (set in the 2016 Presidential election) of 26% of the vote being cast before Election Day may approach 30% this year. 

With that said, these are JMC’s first day projections:

  • Projected early/absentee vote: 357K
  • Projected turnout volume: 1190K
  • Projected turnout percentage: 40%

In Conclusion

Why does early voting matter? When the Legislature essentially established “no fault” early voting more than a decade ago, you now have a noticeable constituency of people who prefer the convenience of early voting, and this constituency has for eight times in a row (the 2015 primary, 2015 runoff, 2016 Presidential elections, December 2016 runoff, October 2017 primary, November 2017 runoff, November 2018 primary, and December 2018 runoff) exceeded 20%. A politician would be foolish to ignore this many “up front” voters, especially in a closely contested race. Also, too, early voting numbers are the first ones that are typically reported after polls have closed at 8 PM.

Categories
Louisiana

Decision 2019: Louisiana Governor’s race poll

Louisiana is a Southern state that remained faithful to the Democratic Party longer than any other state in the region except possibly Arkansas. However, there has been an unmistakable and steady movement over the last decade to the Republicans, to the point that now there are Republican majorities nearly across the board (in other words, Republican majorities in both houses of the Legislature, nearly all statewide offices are held by Republicans, the Supreme Court, Public Service Commission, and the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education). Even in the 2018 Democratic landslide, Louisiana remained staunchly Republican: the partisan vote in Congressional races (all six districts were contested) was 57-38% Republican.

There is a notable exception to the increasing Republican dominance: Democrats recaptured the Governorship in 2015 due to a combination of two things: (1) Republican infighting in the primary prevented any kind of coalescing of the Republican vote in the runoff, and (2) a well run campaign from Democrat John Bel Edwards that proactively inoculated itself against attempts to portray him as a liberal by noting his conservative stances on abortion and gun rights, and by emphasizing his military background.

Now that Governor Edwards is running for re-election against two major Republican candidates (Congressman Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone), will partisan voting patterns reassert themselves and doom his re-election, or does he still have some affirmative strength despite going through numerous legislative special sessions to get a budget passed ?

JMC was engaged to poll this race by the Louisiana Association of Health Plans (LAHP), and these are the takeaways from the poll (which can be found here):

  1. Governor Edwards has benefitted in the last week from blacks and white Democrats’ “coming home”;
  2. Also for Governor Edwards, he has held his own electorally among Republicans and white Independents;
  3. Businessman Eddie Rispone’s ads/attacks on Abraham/debate performance last Thursday night have (in total) enabled him to surge in the race to (for the first time) pass up Congressman Ralph Abraham due to movement among Republicans and white Independents.

 

Categories
2019 Election 2020 Election National Politics Polling

Decision 2019/2020: Dissecting the North Carolina special election results

The last unsettled Congressional election from 2018 has finally concluded, with Republicans holding onto a US House seat in the Charlotte, NC area that they have held since 1963. Republican Dan Bishop was elected by a 51-49% margin in a race that had to be rerun because of material instances of absentee ballot fraud in last year’s midterm election. From an examination of the results, what lessons are there to be learned from this race, and what are the implications for the 2020 Presidential election?

The 9th Congressional District of North Carolina (map can be found here) is a mixture of affluent suburbs and rural areas with a high black (and in Robeson County, a Lumbee Indian) population. While it leans Republican (Donald Trump carried it 54-42% in the 2016 elections), it has seen some movement away from Republicans in more affluent neighborhoods close to downtown Charlotte. And it is the fluidity of this (affluent) demographic that should concern Republicans. For starting with the 1992 Presidential election, affluent professionals in places like Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, New York, and Philadelphia shifted towards the Democrats, and this shift arguably built the “blue wall” of northern/Midwestern/Pacific Rim states that made it significantly more difficult for a Republican Presidential candidate to attain the 270 electoral votes needed to win. And, of course, also put states like Illinois, California, and New Jersey out of reach for Republicans in almost every contest since 1992.

This demographic shift seemed to have a limited scope until the 2016 Presidential election, when suburban areas around cities like Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston (and even locally in East Baton Rouge and Jefferson Parishes) began to show a newfound affinity for Democratic Presidential. This shift at the time went largely unnoticed, because (1) it didn’t cost the Republicans any states (although it made the Georgia and Texas results closer than they should have been), and (2) these areas still re-elected their Republican Congressional representatives, albeit by narrower margins.

However, these areas were at the front line of the Democratic surge in the US House last year, thus creating some concern among Republicans about GOP suburban problems. A similar shift occurred in this race. Democrat Dan McCready (who also ran in the 2018 race that had to be rerun) carried the Charlotte precincts 56-43% (he won these precincts 54-44% last year). The 60-39% Republican vote in suburban Union County (59-39% last year) offset the Charlotte numbers, although this time Democratic rural strength sagged despite a high black and Indian population in those counties – the Democratic candidate carried these counties 53-45% last year but only by 250 votes in the special election contest.

Still, the fact that Donald Trump was able to fire up the Republican base in the district with a rally the night before the election (Republicans in North Carolina tend to vote more on Election Day than they early vote) can’t be discounted. And that is precisely the Republicans’ challenge next year: while his presence benefits Republican candidates who are the beneficiaries of straight ticket voting in Republican areas, rallying the Republican base is much less effective (in Presidential OR Congressional races) in states like Arizona, Colorado, and Virginia, which have a more substantial population of politically unaffiliated voters who are much less favorably inclined towards the Trump brand of Republicanism. And the plain political reality is that President Trump must expand on the 46% of the national popular vote he received in 2016 unless he wants to gamble on (1) Democrats’ nominating someone too far to the left of the political spectrum, (2) an unacceptable Democratic nominee generating a credible third party challenger who can siphon at least 10% of the vote away and enable President Trump to be re-elected with 45-46%. In other words, it’s not wise to dismiss the surge in Democratic turnout in 2017-8 as a fluke, because it’s not yet apparent that the flirtation of Independent voters with Democrats last year has abated.

Categories
2019 Election Analysis Demographics Louisiana

Decision 2019: JMC’s guide to 2019 Legislative Elections in Louisiana

Louisiana is one of three states (Mississippi and Kentucky are the others) who have statewide elections this year. And while the Governor’s race will certainly be competitive (as evidenced by this recent JMC poll), races for the state legislature are a similarly important part of the political landscape.

Historically, Democratic dominance in Louisiana was exemplified by near unanimous representation in both legislative chambers. Part of their dominance, however, was due to Republicans’ only competing for a fraction of the seats – in 1991, they only contested 43% of legislative seats, and even then, they only won 35% of the seats they DID contest. That meant that Republicans only won 15% of legislative seats in 1991, and the partisan vote for House and Senate seats in the October 1991 primary was 75-23% for Democratic candidates.

That began to change in 1995: in addition to winning the Governorship, Republicans made a concerted effort to add to their membership in the Legislature, and met with some success. Still, in the October 1995 primary, the vote for legislative candidates was 68-30% for Democratic candidates.

The 1995 election cycle was an political inflection point for another reason: Louisiana voters overwhelmingly approved a term limits amendment to the Constitution that limited legislators to 12 years’ service in each chamber starting with the 1995 election. So for those elected on or before the 1995 election, their tenure in that chamber would come to an end in 2007. However, since the limitation was for each chamber (as opposed to overall tenure), what happened was that a substantial number of term limited House members ran for the Senate in 2007.

Nevertheless, 2007 was a watershed year for Republicans because term limits immediately opened up the playing field in politically favorable areas, and not only did Republicans for the first time ever come to a near parity in both chambers, but the legislative partisan vote was a relatively narrower 55-43% Democratic. Republicans eventually (through both party switches after the 2010 election cycle and special election victories) gained numerical control of both chambers by 2011, and by the 2015 election cycle, the partisan legislative vote was 56-41% Republican. Going into the 2019 elections, the current partisan balance is 25-14 Republican in the Senate and 62-39 Republican (with 4 Independents) in the House.

What makes 2019 a significant election cycle is that the large freshman class elected in 2007 is now term limited. More specifically, 16 Senators (out of 39) and 31 Representatives (out of 105) are leaving their respective chambers. And if you also count (1) non term-limited House members running for the Senate, and (2) two known retirements (Democrat Terry Landry and Independent Terry Brown), there will actually be at least 40 new House members (there are no known Senate retirements at this time).

So what is likely to happen this year ? In the Senate, there are 16 term limited seats. While 12 of those are Republican held, they are generally in conservative areas: the aggregate vote in these 12 seats was 72-25% Trump and 56-44% for Vitter (in other words, a noticeably more conservative constituency). And if we limit our analysis of “gettable” seats to the ones being vacated, you have exactly one “gettable” seat for Republicans: the senate seat based in Avoyelles and Evangeline Parishes held by Eric Lafleur (D-Ville Platte), which voted 70-27% for Trump and 56-44% for John Bel Edwards.

There are more pickup opportunities for Republicans in the House. 31 of its seats are term limited, while another nine non term limited representatives are either retiring or running for the Senate. This group of 40 representatives consists of 21 Republicans, 17 Democrats, and 2 Independents, and it’s the political complexion of some of the 17 Democratic held seats (as well as the two vacated Independent held seats) that benefits House Republicans (the Republican held seats voted 73-23% for Trump and 58-42% for Vitter). While 11 of the 17 Democratic held seats are in solidly Democratic constituencies that gave Hillary Clinton 76% and John Bel Edwards 84% of the vote, the remaining eight Democratic/Independent seats are pickup possibilities for the Republicans, as they collectively voted 74-25% for Donald Trump and 50.2% for David Vitter.

In conclusion, the political complexion of the legislative districts impacted by term limits (especially in the House) benefits Republicans, but candidate quality and adequate funding will also play a major role in determining which candidates are/are not viable.

Categories
Louisiana

Alabama abortion poll

Anti-abortion legislation has been a hot topic in terms of recent legislative activity in several states. Recently, Alabama Governor Kay Ivey signed legislation that would make it a felony for a doctor to perform an abortion. The intent of this action is to create a legal challenge that will reach all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court for resolution.

But does this action enjoy majority support from the Alabama electorate ? In a bipartisan and joint polling engagement conducted independently of any campaign or organization, JMC Analytics and Polling teamed up with Bold Blue Campaigns to poll attitudes Alabama voters have about various aspects of abortion.

There are two main takeaways from this poll: (1) Alabamians don’t have strong feelings (and are inherently conflicted) about the abortion issue, and (2) they do consistently and strongly oppose the more stringent aspects of abortion restrictions. The poll release can be found here.

Categories
2019 Election National Politics Polling

Decision 2019: North Carolina 9th Congressional District Poll

Until very recently, the Deep South was solidly Democratic, with only scattered Republican beachheads. One such district is the 9th Congressional District of North Carolina, which is centered in and around Charlotte. This district for decades elected Republicans, although its Republicanism is (by today’s standards) the more moderate variety. Accordingly, Republicans have seen this district become more competitive over the years, and Democrats have from time to time seriously contested this seat.

When former Republican incumbent Robert Pittenger was defeated in the 2018 primary by pastor Mark Harris (in addition to ethical issues, he was labeled by Harris as being “part of the Washington swamp”), that defeat, combined with a strong Democratic nominee (ex-Marine and solar contractor Dan McCready) made this a race to watch, and it was closely contested. Even though Harris narrowly won, both his primary and general election victories were tainted by allegations of voter fraud, and the Board of Elections ordered a rerun of the race this September 10. McCready decided to run again on the Democratic side (and was unopposed in his primary), while Republicans chose state senator Dan Bishop, who was also known for his authorship of the “bathroom bill.”

JMC decided to poll this race now that both major parties have selected their nominees (both a Green and a Libertarian candidate are running in the special election as well), and the poll results can be found here.

Categories
2019 Election Louisiana

Decision 2019: Louisiana Governor’s race poll

Louisiana is a Southern state that remained faithful to the Democratic Party longer than any other state in the region except possibly Arkansas. However, there has been an unmistakable and steady movement over the last decade to the Republicans, to the point that now there are Republican majorities nearly across the board (in other words, Republican majorities in both houses of the Legislature, nearly all statewide offices are held by Republicans, the Supreme Court, Public Service Commission, and the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education). Even in the 2018 Democratic landslide, Louisiana remained staunchly Republican: the partisan vote in Congressional races (all six districts were contested) was 57-38% Republican.

There is a notable exception to the increasing Republican dominance: Democrats recaptured the Governorship in 2015 due to a combination of two things: (1) Republican infighting in the primary prevented any kind of coalescing of the Republican vote in the runoff, and (2) a well run campaign from Democrat John Bel Edwards that proactively inoculated itself against attempts to portray him as a liberal by noting his conservative stances on abortion and gun rights, and by emphasizing his military background.

Now that Governor Edwards is running for re-election against two currently announced Republican candidates (Congressman Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone), will partisan voting patterns reassert themselves and doom his re-election, or does he still have some affirmative strength despite going through numerous legislative special sessions to get a budget passed ?

JMC was engaged to poll this race, and these are the takeaways from the poll (which can be found here):

  1. President Trump remains popular in Louisiana, although there has been some erosion in his support;
  2. Governor Edwards faces a challenging reelection, and that campaign is likely to go to runoff;
  3. Governor Edwards has a relatively static base of support regardless of the ballot configuration;
  4. If undecideds among blacks and Republicans are properly allocated, Governor Edwards has a 45-42% lead over Republican candidates.

 

Categories
Analysis Demographics Louisiana Redistricting

2018 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting

While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Recently, the July 1, 2018 population estimates were released for each of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ?

Slower population growth: For decades, Louisiana’s rate of population growth has been less than the national rate of population growth. Since the 2010 Census, Louisiana has seen slow but steady growth of about 25K/0.5% a year between 2010-2016. That growth (which, relatively speaking, was the fastest since the 1970s) slowed down to about 10K/0.2% per year between 2015-2017, then went into reverse between 2017-2018 with a net population loss of 24K. In fact, only 20 parishes saw net population growth between 2017 and 2018 (compared to 26 parishes which saw growth between 2016 and 2017).

2020 Reapportionment impact: Overall, overall population growth statewide between 2010-2018 was 2.8% (and, assuming current trends hold, would be 3.4% by April of 2020 when the next Census is taken), but there have been considerable variations in the rate of growth (or population loss) from parish to parish, because you have the combination of (1) continuous suburban growth generally along the I-10 and 12 corridors, and (2) a continuing reversal of massive population losses seen in Orleans and Saint Bernard Parishes after the destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

What would those population changes look like if the maps for the state House were redrawn today ? JMC has taken the estimated July 1, 2018 population, projected that growth/loss ahead to 2020, and allocated that parish population across Louisiana’s approximately 3900 precincts to get an idea of where population shifts have occurred within its 105 House districts, and here’s what was found:

Population Change By Region, 2010-2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010 House Districts by Region

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010 House Districts By Region (Southeast LA)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Given that House districts covering North/Central Louisiana are projected to lose 2% of their population by 2020, that area (which as a whole elects 29 House members out of 105) would likely see a 1-2 seat loss. In Orleans Parish/New Orleans (which currently elects 8 House members), continued (17%) population growth (although that growth flipped to a net population loss last year) would likely allow it to regain one of the seats it lost in 2010. In the fast growing (13% growth) suburbs of Ascension, Livingston, Tangipahoa, and St Tammany Parishes (which elect 14 representatives), a new seat is likely to be added there as well. There will be projected 2% population growth in the rest of the state (where 54 House members are elected), and minimal district line changes are therefore likely to happen, although it’s important to emphasize that nothing is final until the official April 1, 2020 Census count. Furthermore, internal legislative politics can and will play a large part in determining the specific seats that are added or eliminated.